Abstract Using a new variable based on a model of dividend smoothing, we find that dividend growth is highly predictable and that cash flow news contributes importantly to return variability. Cash flow betas derived from this predictability are central to explaining the size effect in the cross section of returns. However, they do not explain the value effect; this is explained by noise betas. We also find that the relative importance of cash flow news in explaining recent stock price run-ups and subsequent declines increases when cash flow news is estimated directly.

We analyze the dividend behavior of the aggregate stock market. We propose a model that assumes managers minimize the costs of adjustment associated with being away from their target dividend payout. The target is expressed as a function of lagged stock prices and permanent earnings, generalizing previous models of dividend behavior. We present a new method for measuring unobserved permanent earnings based on the Kalman filter. Our specification of dividend behavior is strongly supported by the data both relative to alternative models and over time. We find significant evidence of dividend smoothing and dividends conveying information regarding unexpected positive changes in current permanent earnings. We also find that both the speed of adjustment of dividends to target dividends and tests of signaling are sensitive to the specification of the model.

How consequential is social reputation for a CEO's career? We find that the CEOs of those firms with greater strengths (controversies) on corporate social responsibilities (CSR) are more (less) likely to serve on external boards, and they hold more (fewer) outside directorships. CEOs lose board seats after the media expose their companies in negative environmental and social news. More nuanced analyses show that workplace diversity and supply-chain human rights are most consequential among the social and environmental dimensions of CSR. Our study demonstrates that CEOs are judged on their companies' social reputation in the director labor market. Our results also suggest that social reputation plays an important role in promoting CSR.