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Time Variation in Mutual Fund Style Exposures

Review of Finance 2007 11(4), 633-661
Abstract Despite the wide acceptance of return-based style analysis, the method has several limitations. One important drawback is the assumption that style exposures are time-invariant. We apply results on break tests developed in Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) to test for style breaks. We find strong evidence against the hypothesis of constant time exposures in daily return data for European equity funds. All funds exhibit at least one break, and 60% exhibit more than one break. We show that the main reason for style breaks is the mutual funds' reliance on conditional investment strategies based on public information and volatility estimates.

Are extreme returns priced in the stock market? European evidence

Journal of Banking & Finance 2013 37(9), 3401-3411 open access
This paper revisits some recently found evidence in the literature on the cross-section of stock returns for a carefully constructed dataset of euro area stocks. First, we confirm recent results for US data and find evidence of a negative cross-sectional relation between extreme positive returns and average returns after controlling for characteristics such as momentum, book-to-market, size, liquidity and short term return reversal. We argue that this is the case because these stocks have lottery-like characteristics, which is attractive to certain investors. Also, these stocks tend to be very volatile so that arbitrageurs are discouraged from correcting potential mispricing. As a consequence, these stocks are often overpriced and hence face lower expected returns. Second, when we control for extreme returns, the recently found negative relationship between idiosyncratic risk and future returns is less robust. In our models, after adding maximum returns, the relationship is insignificant and sometimes even positive. We also find that idiosyncratic skewness and coskewness play an important role for asset pricing, as predicted by several theoretical models.

Performance evaluation of portfolio insurance strategies using stochastic dominance criteria

Journal of Banking & Finance 2009 33(2), 272-280
This paper evaluates the performance of the stop-loss, synthetic put and constant proportion portfolio insurance techniques based on a block-bootstrap simulation. We consider not only traditional performance measures, but also some recently developed measures that capture the non-normality of the return distribution (value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and the Omega measure). We compare them to the more comprehensive stochastic dominance criteria. The impact of changing the rebalancing frequency and level of capital protection is examined. We find that, even though a buy-and-hold strategy generates higher average excess returns, it does not stochastically dominate the portfolio insurance strategies, nor vice versa. Our results indicate that a 100% floor value should be preferred to lower floor values and that daily-rebalanced synthetic put and CPPI strategies dominate their counterparts with less frequent rebalancing.

The value of asset allocation advice: Evidence from The Economist's quarterly portfolio poll

Journal of Banking & Finance 2005 29(3), 661-680
This study analyzes the economic importance of portfolio advice for an investor with an international and multiple-asset investment strategy. We construct portfolios based upon the asset allocation and security market advice of major international investment bankers and analyze the performance using weight-based techniques. Our results indicate that portfolio advisers are not able to outperform passive benchmarks. They do not realize superior performance either through appropriate timing or selection skills. Apparent market timing skills as measured by the Portfolio Change Measure are to a large extent an artifact caused by serial correlation in the return indices used. Likewise, the apparent short-run performance persistence is more due to the serial correlation in returns than to active portfolio selection strategies.

Investor protection, taxation and dividend policy: Long-run evidence, 1838–2012

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 85, 113-131
We investigate whether investor protection and taxation legislation affect dividend policy, using a unique sample of all Belgian firms listed on the Brussels Stock Exchange between 1838 and 2012. Investor protection was very weak in Belgium before World War I, but gradually improved over time. Dividend taxation was introduced only in 1920. While it is generally believed that investor protection and taxation affect dividend policy, we find that dividend policy has been remarkably stable over time, even after controlling for firm characteristics. Changes in investor protection and taxation legislation seem to have had little impact on dividend policy.