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What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11

Journal of Economic Literature 2019 57(2), 275-328 open access
This overview examines critically the post-9/11 empirical literature on terrorism. Major contributions by both economists and political scientists are included. We focus on five main themes: the changing nature of terrorism, the organization of terrorist groups, the effectiveness of counterterrorism policies, modern drivers or causes of terrorism, and the economic consequences of terrorism. In so doing, we investigate a host of questions that include: How do terrorist groups attract and retain members? What determines the survival of terrorist groups? Is poverty a root cause of terrorism? What counterterrorism measures work best? In the latter regard, we find that many counterterrorism policies have unintended negative consequences owing to attack transference and terrorist backlash. This suggests the need for novel policies such as service provision to counter some terrorist groups’ efforts to provide such services. Despite terrorists’ concerted efforts to damage targeted countries’ economies, the empirical literature shows that terrorism has had little or no effect on economic growth or GDP except in small terrorism-plagued countries. At the sectoral level, terrorism can adversely affect tourism and foreign direct investment, but these effects are rather transient and create transference of activities to other sectors, thus cushioning the consequences.

The effect of capital inflows on the imports of capital goods in developing countries

Journal of Corporate Finance 2024 84, 102531 open access
This paper examines the relationship between capital inflows and import of capital goods to credit-constrained industries in developing countries. Using data of 11 industrial sectors in 57 countries for 2000–2020, we find that financially dependent industries import disproportionately more capital goods if they operate in countries that receive more foreign funds. A host of robustness tests, including instrumental variables estimation, confirm our main finding. We also document that: (i) the established nexus breaks down during the global financial crisis, (ii) the observed relationship is mainly due to the direct investment via equity, and (iii) host countries tend to import relatively more capital goods from G7 economies. Overall, our results suggest that one channel through which capital inflows affect economic growth is by alleviating firms' financial constraints, thereby enabling firms to acquire more advanced capital goods.