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Testing the waters meetings, retail trading, and capital market frictions
Abstract Pre-IPO firms may “test the waters” by meeting privately with investors in order to allow access to management and more time to make an investment decision. However, these meetings have the potential to undermine the SEC’s objectives of protecting investors and supporting market efficiency by allowing institutional investors, but not retail investors, private access to management. We find lower retail trading after IPOs of firms that held testing-the-waters meetings, consistent with the meetings reducing retail investor participation. Moreover, retail investors that still participate in the market in the presence of testing-the-waters meetings have inferior investment outcomes. Nonetheless, we find no evidence of lower overall market liquidity or slower price discovery following testing-the-waters meetings. In fact, we observe a reduction in stock return volatility. Overall our evidence suggests that, while testing-the-waters meetings may harm retail investors, there does not appear to be a negative impact on overall market function.
The impact of enhanced creditor rights on venture capital: Evidence from the Uniform Fraudulent Transfer Act
This study investigates how the Uniform Fraudulent Transfer Act (UFTA) shapes venture capital (VC) investment strategies and startup outcomes. Using data on 34,578 VC-backed startups from 1977 to 2019, we find that the UFTA inadvertently leads VC investors to prioritize existing portfolio companies over new investments, resulting in longer funding durations. Startups subsequently rely more heavily on secured debt and experience diminished innovation outcomes. Additionally, under heightened financial pressure, startups commit violations more frequently, particularly employment-related offenses. Nonetheless, startups backed by more experienced VCs demonstrate stronger innovation performance and are more likely to achieve successful exits through initial public offerings.
Agent-Based Modeling in Economics and Finance: Past, Present, and Future
Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a novel computational methodology for representing the behavior of individuals in order to study social phenomena. Its use is rapidly growing in many fields. We review ABM in economics and finance and highlight how it can be used to relax conventional assumptions in standard economic models. ABM has enriched our understanding of markets, industrial organization, labor, macro, development, public policy, and environmental economics. In financial markets, substantial accomplishments include understanding clustered volatility, market impact, systemic risk, and housing markets. We present a vision for how ABMs might be used in the future to build more realistic models of the economy and review some of hurdles that must be overcome to achieve this. (JEL C63, D00, E00, G00)
Housing and Inequality
We approach the literature on housing and inequality from two angles. One is the impact of unequal endowments on housing. The second is the “memberships” inequality associated with neighborhoods, namely, households’ location in a geographic and social context. We elaborate on these two angles of inequality and focus on three distinctive features of housing: consumption, capital, and location. For owner-occupants, capital and consumption are bundled together in a single good. For both renters and owner-occupants, housing consumption inequality, access to good neighborhoods, and housing wealth follow from unequal endowments. Housing can propagate inequality by enabling owner-occupants to use it as collateral for other investments or to secure higher returns to human capital investments through the better schools in better neighborhoods. We use this approach to analyze key aspects of housing and inequality, paying special attention to the impacts of racial discrimination and segregation. (JEL D63, J15, J24, R21, R23, R31)
Measuring the Prevalence of Earnings Manipulations: A Novel Approach
ABSTRACT We provide prevalence estimates for five forms of earnings manipulation based on executives’ reports about their firms’ actual reporting practices. After preregistering our methods and analyses via the Journal of Accounting Research ’s registration‐based editorial process, we recruit nearly a thousand executives from firms listed in the Russell 3000 Index to participate in either a survey or a list experiment; the hallmark of the latter being additional privacy protections designed to promote honest disclosure about self‐incriminating information. In our survey, 26.8% of executives disclose at least one form of earnings manipulation at their firm in the 2018–2023 period: 18.0% report changing an operational activity to meet a near‐term earnings target at the expense of long‐term value (i.e., real earnings management), 8.8% report intentionally obfuscating unfavorable information, 6.6% report manipulating accruals, 3.9% report withholding material information, and 0.0% report accounting fraud. Our list experiment produces an economically higher result in two cases, estimating that 29.9% of firms engaged in real earnings management and 12.4% committed accounting fraud over the same time period. We conclude that while a traditional survey can provide credible lower‐bound estimates for the prevalence of many forms of earnings manipulation, list experiments encourage more honest disclosure in some cases.
Descriptive evidence on small business managers’ information choices
The power of small talk: How small talk and psychological ownership influence managers’ communication defensiveness during audit inquiry
U.S. multinationals’ foreign cash holdings: an empirical estimate and the impact of the tax cuts and jobs act of 2017 on the value of foreign cash
Abstract We use publicly available information to estimate the country location of multinational firms’ cash holdings, examine why investors discount the value of cash held overseas, and examine whether that discount changes after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. We provide three main results. First, our firm-year foreign cash estimates are reasonably accurate, evidenced by high correlations with simulated data and proprietary country-level data, high adjusted R 2 when explaining a firm’s total cash holdings, and the ability to replicate prior findings. Second, we demonstrate that investors value foreign cash holdings more negatively than domestic cash holdings when the cash is held in high agency-cost countries. Finally, we find that investors no longer appear to discount foreign cash after the TCJA, when the U.S. moved from a worldwide to a quasi-territorial taxation system.