We examine the long-term return performance of U.S. IPOs underwritten by relationship banks. We show that, over one- to three-year horizons, IPOs managed by relationship banks experience buy-and-hold benchmark-adjusted returns that are similar to those observed for a matching sample of stocks managed by non-relationship underwriters. This result holds even when the returns' skewness and cross-sectional correlation is accounted for. Further, we examine the calendar-time returns on a portfolio that is long the stocks underwritten by relationship banks and short ex-ante similar stocks taken public by non-relationship institutions. Again, we conclude that the two groups of IPOs yield similar long-run returns. These findings support the certification role of relationship banks and suggest that, in this respect, the effect of the 1999 repeal of Sections 20 and 32 of the Glass–Steagall Act has not been negative.

We propose a no-arbitrage model of the nominal and real term structures that accommodates the different persistence and volatility of distinct inflation components. Core, food, and energy inflation combine into a single total inflation measure that ties nominal and real risk-free bond prices together. The model successfully extracts market participants’ expectations of future inflation from nominal yields and inflation data. Estimation uncovers a factor structure common to core inflation and interest rates and downplays the pass-through effect of short-lived food and energy shocks on inflation and interest rates. Model forecasts systematically outperform survey forecasts and other benchmarks. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

The 1987 market crash was associated with a dramatic and permanent steepening of the implied volatility curve for equity index options, despite minimal changes in aggregate consumption. We explain these events within a general equilibrium framework in which expected endowment growth and economic uncertainty are subject to rare jumps. The arrival of a jump triggers the updating of agents' beliefs about the likelihood of future jumps, which produces a market crash and a permanent shift in option prices. Consumption and dividends remain smooth, and the model is consistent with salient features of individual stock options, equity returns, and interest rates.

We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs" are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that agents require a time-varying risk premium for bearing state uncertainty. The model outperforms affine specifications with the same number of state variables, suggesting that there are important nonlinearities in credit spreads that are captured by our model. Contagion drives most of the variation in CDS spreads, especially before the crisis. However, economic fundamentals account for a significant fraction during the crisis.

ABSTRACT We propose using model‐free yield quadratic variation measures computed from intraday data as a tool for specification testing and selection of dynamic term structure models. We find that the yield curve fails to span realized yield volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, as the systematic volatility factors are largely unrelated to the cross‐section of yields. We conclude that a broad class of affine diffusive, quadratic Gaussian, and affine jump‐diffusive models cannot accommodate the observed yield volatility dynamics. Hence, the Treasury market per se is incomplete, as yield volatility risk cannot be hedged solely through Treasury securities.

We investigate equilibrium debt dynamics for a firm that cannot commit to a future debt policy and is subject to a fixed restructuring cost. We formally characterize equilibria when the firm is not required to repurchase outstanding debt prior to issuing additional debt. For realistic values of issuance costs and debt maturity, the no-commitment policy generates tax benefits that are similar to those obtained by a benchmark policy with commitment. For positive but arbitrarily small issuance costs, there are maturities for which shareholders extract essentially the entire claim to cash-flows.

ABSTRACT This paper extends the class of stochastic volatility diffusions for asset returns to encompass Poisson jumps of time‐varying intensity. We find that any reasonably descriptive continuous‐time model for equity‐index returns must allow for discrete jumps as well as stochastic volatility with a pronounced negative relationship between return and volatility innovations. We also find that the dominant empirical characteristics of the return process appear to be priced by the option market. Our analysis indicates a general correspondence between the evidence extracted from daily equity‐index returns and the stylized features of the corresponding options market prices.

We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with “fragile beliefs” are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that agents require a time-varying risk premium for bearing state uncertainty. The model outperforms affine specifications with the same number of state variables, suggesting that there are important nonlinearities in credit spreads that are captured by our model. Contagion drives most of the variation in CDS spreads, especially before the crisis. However, economic fundamentals account for a significant fraction during the crisis.

ABSTRACT We study portfolio choice when labor income and dividends are cointegrated. Economically plausible calibrations suggest young investors should take substantial short positions in the stock market. Because of cointegration the young agent's human capital effectively becomes “stock‐like.” However, for older agents with shorter times‐to‐retirement, cointegration does not have sufficient time to act, and thus their human capital becomes more “bond‐like.” Together, these effects create hump‐shaped life‐cycle portfolio holdings, consistent with empirical observation. These results hold even when asset return predictability is accounted for.