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Managing renewable energy production risk

Journal of Banking & Finance 2018 97, 1-19
The growing share of renewables paired with their intermittent nature introduces significant new challenges for market participants along the value-chain in power markets. Taking the view of an owner of such a physical renewable asset we showcase the management of the associated stochastic production risks in Germany, one of the most dynamic electricity markets and the largest producer of renewable energy in the EU-28. We find that unhedged renewable portfolios are very risky and existing vanilla derivatives are poor hedges. New exotic quantity-related weather contracts proposed by major energy exchanges (EEX) show a lot of potential but are still very illiquid. Their hedging performance is heavily driven by the market wide renewable generation portfolio which, in its current state, favors specific regions. In the long-run price-related derivatives will transform into more useful hedging instruments due to the growing importance of renewables in the formation of wholesale market prices.

Risk factors and their associated risk premia: An empirical analysis of the crude oil market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2018 95, 44-63
This paper sheds new light on higher-order price risks in crude oil markets. A model-free analysis reveals that crude oil variance risk behaves fundamentally different from variance risk in equity markets. Most importantly, a skewness swap is no valid hedge for a variance swap and investors fear large price jumps in both directions. A model-based assessment confirms this and reveals that while stochastic volatility is important to capture the statistical properties such as volatility clusters and time-varying variance swap rates, only jump risk seems to be priced with a premium. Empirical evidence from a pricing and hedging exercise confirms these findings.