Introduction: the problem, 491; the question of "depreciation, " 493; comparison with inconvertible paper, 494. — The theory of silver exchange, 495. — Theories of silver flow: the problem, 498; the "need for silver" analysis, 500; the balance of payments analysis, 501; the "silver a commodity" analysis, 502; Marshall's analysis, 503. — The "purchasing-power-parity" theory of silver flow, 506. — The mechanism of adjusting international balances under silver exchange, 510. — The theory of gold flow, 514. — Sectional price movements under silver exchange, 516. — Conclusion, 519.

Journal Article The Effect of Depreciated Exchange Upon Merchandise Movements Get access Choh-Ming Li Choh-Ming Li Berkeley, Calif. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 49, Issue 3, May 1935, Pages 495–502, https://doi.org/10.2307/1883865 Published: 01 May 1935

This paper does three things. First, it explores the type of asymmetry in exchange rate correlation for five inflation-targeting countries. We show their currencies co-move more closely with the currencies of some influential foreign countries during joint appreciations than joint depreciations against a world currency. Second, it establishes empirically the linkage between interest rate differentials and exchange rate correlation. We find evidence that both widening and narrowing interest rate differentials will reduce the correlation. Third, it proposes a new version of the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. The model proves to be capable of providing great insight into the two issues investigated.

NFLATION in China is a subject of considerable interest and serious concern to all Allied Nations, inasmuch as it might so affect the Chinese war economy as to delay considerably a large-scale counteroffensive from this vital base, thereby prolonging the war. Lack of reliable information has given rise to much speculation regarding the subject, such speculation being based largely on the superficial evidence of price movements. The conclusions thus drawn naturally have involved considerable misunderstanding of the Chinese economy. This situation is not conducive to full cooperation between China and its allies. It is essential, therefore, that an objective and factual picture of inflation within Free China should be presented.

Abstract This paper proposes a robust method for semiparametric identification and estimation in panel multinomial choice models, where we allow for infinite-dimensional fixed effects that enter into consumer utilities in an additively nonseparable way, thus incorporating rich forms of unobserved heterogeneity. Our identification strategy exploits multivariate monotonicity in parametric indices, and uses the logical contraposition of an intertemporal inequality on choice probabilities to obtain identifying restrictions. We provide a consistent estimation procedure, and demonstrate the practical advantages of our method with Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical illustration on popcorn sales with the NielsenIQ data.

This paper addresses a problem that may damage the reliability of an interbank offered rate (IBOR) system. Using evidence from the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR), we show that some SHIBOR panel banks imitate peers’ quotes after observing them on the next business day. The strength of the intertemporal behavior can be measured by a “Signed Active-minus-Stationary (SAmS)” index, which significantly predicts SHIBOR changes. Moreover, we find that the consequences of the imitation behavior are not fully perceived and understood by the market, and, as a result, SHIBOR-linked derivatives are mispriced. Our findings suggest that regulators of a poll-based interest rate benchmark should pay attention to the intertemporal imitation of submissions, in addition to bad faith collusion. The SAmS index can be utilized in the quality control of panel bank submissions.

We investigate the impacts of policy and information shocks on the correlation of China’s T-bond and stock returns, using originally the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model that allows for the coexistence of opposite-signed asymmetries. The co-movements of China’s capital markets react to large macroeconomic policy shocks as evidenced by structural breaks in the correlation following the drastic 2004 macroeconomic austerity. We show that the T-bond market and the bond–stock correlations bear more of the brunt of the macroeconomic contractions. We also find that the bond–stock correlations respond more strongly to joint negative than joint positive shocks, implying that investors tend to move both the T-bond and stock prices in the same direction when the two asset classes have been hit concurrently by bad news, but tend to shift funds from one asset class to the other when hit concurrently by good news. However, the stock–stock correlation is found to increase for joint positive shocks, indicating that investors tend to herd more for joint bullish than joint bearish stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

This study explores how the violation of free short selling assumption affects the performance of CAPM and the Fama-French three-factor model, as existing studies show that short-sales constraints affect asset pricing of the stocks. Using data from the Hong Kong Stock Market which has unique regulations on short selling, we conduct both time-series and cross-sectional regression analyses to evaluate the performance of the two models under the short-sales-constraints and the no-constraints market environment. The two models perform much worse in the former environment than in the latter, indicating a significant impact of the short sales constraints on the explanatory power of the models. We then augment the two models with a shortability-mimicking factor. Our results show that the factor has a significant power in explaining both time-series and cross-sectional variation in the size-B/M portfolio returns. The addition of the factor to the two models considerably increases their overall performance.

Kolotilin acknowledges financial support from the Australian Research Council. Zapechelnyuk acknowledges financial support from the Economic and Social Research Council (grant no. ES/N01829X/1)