It is now widely held that stock prices are too volatile to be optimal forecasts of future dividends discounted at a constant rate. Using the present value model with a constant discount rate, we show that when there is memory in the duration of dividend swings, the stock price can move in a more volatile fashion than could be warranted by future dividend movements. The memory in the duration of a dividend swing will lead economic agents to time the swing, thereby generating a spurious bias in the stock price. When memory is strong, this spurious bias becomes significant and induces excess volatility in the stock price as if rational bubbles exist. The Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) procedure is used to examine the long swings property in the dividend series. We cannot reject the hypothesis of a strong memory in the dividend swings, and show that excess volatility, even in large samples, can be generated through simulation.

In this paper, we study the initial-conditions problem, a complication associated with left-censored or interrupted spells in the econometric analysis of labor market transitions. In the presence of unobserved individual-specific heterogeneity, no consistent estimators have been previously constructed. This paper proposes such an estimator using indirect inference (II). The II procedure simulates the structural model and “matches” the simulated data with the actual data via the implementation of an informative auxiliary model. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the II estimator are proved. Monte Carlo experiments as well as a real data set are used to illustrate the small-sample performance of the II estimator. These results show that the II estimator is insensitive to the alternative auxiliary models chosen for the II estimation.

In Hong Kong, 35% of residential mortgage loans are adjustable rate mortgages with variable tenor (VRT). That is, with a change in interest rates, the loan adjusts its maturity and principal payment such that the monthly installment remains the same. In other words, instead of bearing a volatility on monthly payments as in a fixed-tenor variable payment (VRP) mortgage, VRT mortgagors bear interest rate risk by bearing a tenor risk. In this paper, we analyze the valuation of this type of mortgages and the results are compared with the conventional VRP mortgages. We find VRT loans are less expensive from a borrower's perspective than VRP loans, but the difference between the loans becomes less significant if a tenor cap is added to the VRT loan.

This paper examines the relationship between bank lending rates and their cost of funds in New Zealand. Our results show that on average mortgage rates respond more quickly to changes in the cost of funds than base business lending rates. We also find an asymmetry in the initial (short-run) response of banks to changes in funding costs; in particular, our results show banks adjust mortgage rates downwards faster than upwards. The speed to which lending rates revert back to their equilibrium relationship with funding costs varies across the lending markets. We find the adjustment speed is faster when mortgage rates are below equilibrium, whereas it is slower when business lending rates are above long-run levels in relation to funding costs. Our analysis suggests that banks prefer the plain-vanilla type of lending such as mortgages in comparison to small business lending consistent with asymmetric information associated with business loans.

We examine the relation between country and industry portfolio concentration and performance using a data set of international equity mutual funds. When sorted by concentration measures, funds in the most concentrated quintile outperform those in the most diversified quintile by 0.16% and 0.30% monthly in country and industry dimensions, respectively. Further analysis shows that the superior performance of concentrated funds is largely driven by industry rather than country concentration, suggesting the existence of global industry private information. Finally, we show that industry-concentrated funds rotate top-holding industries less frequently than their diversified counterparts, and that the industries these funds purchase subsequently outperform the industries they sell.

We examine how the Jumpstart Our Business Startup Act (JOBS Act) affects mergers and acquisitions. We find that U.S. private targets are valued higher after the JOBS Act relative to public targets acquired by U.S. acquirers. The announcement returns of acquirers who acquired U.S. private targets after the JOBS Act are lower. The effect concentrates on private targets that are unlikely to qualify as small reporting companies should they choose to go public. We also show that the results are unlikely to be driven by changes in deal synergy.

This paper examines the degree of pass-through and adjustment speed of retail interest rates in response to changes in benchmark market rates in New Zealand during the period 1994–2004. We consider the effects of policy transparency and financial structure of the monetary transmission mechanism. New Zealand is the first OECD country to adopt a full-fledged inflation targeting regime with specific accountability and transparency provisions. Policy transparency was further enhanced by a shift from quantity (settlement cash) to price (interest rate) operating targets in 1999. Using Phillips–Loretan estimates of cointegrating regressions we find complete long-term pass-through for some but not all retail rates. Our results also show that the introduction of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increased the pass-through of floating and deposit rates but not fixed mortgage rates. In line with previous studies we find the immediate pass-through of market interest rates to bank retail rates to be incomplete. Although we find no statistical evidence for asymmetric response of retail rates to changes in market rates other than for business lending rates in the pre OCR period, differences in the magnitude of mean adjustment lags indicate that banks appear to pass on decreases to fixed mortgage rates faster. Overall, our results confirm that monetary policy rate has more influence on short-term interest rates and that increased transparency has lowered instrument volatility and enhanced the efficacy of policy.

This study examines the impact of forced bank mergers on the shareholders’ wealth of Malaysian banks. Forced bank mergers, which are the result of direct government intervention in the consolidation of the banking industry, are generally rare. Unlike the findings on voluntary mergers and acquisitions, our study shows that the forced merger scheme destroys economic value in aggregate and the acquiring banks tend to gain at the expense of the target banks. Further analysis shows that the contrasting forced merger finding is linked to cronyism.

This paper investigates the impact of risk and quality factors on banks’ cost by using the stochastic cost frontier methodology to evaluate scale and X-inefficiencies, as well as technical change for a sample of Japanese commercial banks between 1993 and 1996. Loan-loss provisions are included in the cost frontier model to control for output quality, with a financial capital and a liquidity ratio included to control risk. Following the approach suggested in Mester (1996) we show that if risk and quality factors are not taken into account optimal bank size tends to be overstated. That is, optimal bank size is considerably smaller when risk and quality factors are taken into account when modelling the cost characteristics of Japanese banks. We also find that the level of financial capital has the biggest influence on the scale efficiency estimates. X-inefficiency estimates, in contrast, appear less sensitive to risk and quality factors. Our results also suggest that scale inefficiencies dominate X-inefficiencies. These are important findings because they contrast with the results of previous studies on Japanese banking. In particular, the results indicate an alternative policy prescription, namely, that the largest banks should shrink to benefit from scale advantages. It also seems that financial capital has the largest influence on optimal bank size.

We demonstrate the estimation biases that arise when stock returns from 12month prior and 2month prior are included within intermediate and recent past momentum profits. These biases lead to an overestimation of intermediate past momentum but an underestimation of recent past momentum in the US market. There is no significant difference between the predictability of stock performance in the intermediate past and the recent past once we exclude these two months from the construction of momentum strategies in the US and each of the 26 major international markets.