The tax rate on capital gains of equity has varied substantially over time and correlates negatively with realized capital gains and tax revenue. In our model, investors who anticipate the dynamics of the tax rate in their bond–equity mix realize greater gains when realized equity returns are higher, the capital gains tax rate is lower, and capital losses carried forward are larger. Simulating a calibrated population of investors produces model data consistent with tax revenue from capital gains realizations. Our model can inform the policymaker’s choice of the capital gains tax rate.

We study asset prices and portfolio choice with overlapping generations, where the young disregard history to learn from own experience. Disregarding history implies less precise estimates of output growth, which in equilibrium leads the young to increase their investment in risky assets after positive returns, that is, they act as trend chasers. In equilibrium, the risk premium decreases after a positive shock and, therefore, trend chasing young agents lose wealth relative to old agents who behave as contrarians. Consistent with findings from survey data, the average belief about the risk premium in the economy relates negatively to future excess returns and is smoother than the true risk premium.

We show that inflation disagreement, not just expected inflation, has an impact on nominal interest rates. In contrast to expected inflation, which mainly affects the wedge between real and nominal yields, inflation disagreement affects nominal yields predominantly through its impact on the real side of the economy. We show theoretically and empirically that inflation disagreement raises real and nominal yields and their volatilities. Inflation disagreement is positively related to consumers’ cross-sectional consumption growth volatility and trading in fixed income securities. Calibrating our model to disagreement, inflation, and yields reproduces the economically significant impact of inflation disagreement on yield curves.