Specification Error Tests and Investment Functions
This paper analyzes three quarterly investment models for the detection of certain specifi- cation errors. The models are those of Anderson (1 and 2), Eisner (4), and Meyer-Glauber (10). The models are applied to thirteen manufacturing industries. A set of specification error tests developed by Ramsey (12, 13, and 14) are applied to the above models so as to detect the specification errors of omission of variables, incorrect functional form, simul- taneous equation problems, and heteroskedasticity. The models are ranked in order of the number of times they failed to be rejected by the specification error tests and the rank scheme is compared to that found in a previous study by Jorgenson, Hunter, and Nadiri (6), where more conventional criteria are used for ranking the models. industries, making use of both quarterly and annual data. Accelerator models and their variations (flexible accelerator models) as well as models considering internal and external finance are common in the estimation of the investment function. The lag structure between investment and its determinants and the manner in which replacement or the depreciation of capital is accounted for has also evoked the interest of researchers.2 From a perusal of the literature it is apparent that we face almost as many possible models for investment behavior as there are researchers. The problem at hand then is to come closer to a single general investment model from the numerous possibilities suggested. To do this we must investigate models of investment which differ both in terms of the determinants of investment as well as their lag structure so as to cover the broad range of specifications suggested. In a recent study, Jorgenson, Hunter, and Nadiri (6) (hereafter JHN) investi- gated various investment functions for several manufacturing industries using deflated, seasonally adjusted, quarterly data. JHN chose the best model based on the following criteria: (i) comparison of a given investment function with an auto- regressive scheme with regard to goodness to fit; (ii) comparison of a given invest- ment function with a model regressing investment on past anticipated investment expenditures; (iii) R2; (iv) estimates of the standard error of the fitted regression residuals corrected for degrees of freedom; and (v) Durbin-Watson ratio. The last three criteria mentioned above (and especially the third and fourth) are often the standard techniques employed by researchers in selecting a model specifica- tion.3