Richard Brealey, Stephen Schaefer, Term Structure with Uncertain Inflation, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 32, No. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association, Atlantic City, New Jersey, September 16-18, 1976 (May, 1977), pp. 277-289

A potential explanation for the time-series predictability of market returns with dividend yields is the differential tax treatment of capital gains and dividends. This article investigates to what extent the predictability of long-horizon returns can be explained by this tax effect. Assuming that after-tax expected returns are constant, we test the derived relationships between pretax returns and lagged dividend yields with UK data. We also compare the predictability of before-tax long-horizon returns with that of after-tax returns. The results indicate that the tax treatment of dividends does not significantly contribute towards the predictability of stock returns.

This book is a sequel to An Introduction to Risk and Return from Common Stocks (The MIT Press, 1969), although it is fully self-contained and can be read independently. Both books describe in non-technical language the behavior of common stock prices as revealed by formal statistical work. In the process they offer a broad survey of recent quantitative academic research on the subject, much of which is currently in an inaccessible form.The earlier book, which the New York Times says rates high as reading for every professional investor, was concerned with the basic factors affecting risk and return from common stocks. The present work is concerned primarily with unusual factors that may influence the value of an investment. It is divided into three parts: the first considers various company decisions that may affect the price of its stock (decisions on capital structure, dividend policy, and acquisitions); the second looks at particular types of activity in the stock (insider trading, short selling, and secondary distributions); while the third considers securities that are convertible to common stock.Richard Brealey continues to cover new ground. Little of the material in this book can be found in existing investments texts, and like his first book, it should provide an invaluable source of information for the professional investor and may well be received in the same spirit.

Part 1 The reaction of stock prices to new information technical analysis and random walks fundamental analysis and publicly available information can professional investors beat the market. Part 2 Valuation analyzing common stocks the behaviour of earnings. Part 3 Choosing a common stock portfolio the principles of portfolio selection how stocks move together measuring risk passive and active portfolios risk and return measuring investment performance.

[Using a large sample of cross-border mergers, we measure the effect of a change in location on systematic risk. When a target firm's location moves, a large part of its systematic risk switches from being related to its home equity market to that of the acquirer. On average, the change in betas is equivalent to an excess shift of about 0.5 in the target's beta from its home market to that of the acquirer. We test whether the change in systematic risk can be explained by fundamental factors related to changes in the operations of the firm or merger synergy and find that it cannot.]