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Household Gasoline Demand in the United States

Econometrica 1999 67(3), 645-662 open access
Continuing rapid growth in U.S. gasoline consumption threatens to exacerbate environmental and congestion problems. We use flexible semiparametric and nonparametric methods to guide analysis of household gasoline consumption, and including this variable cuts the estimated income elasticity in half. Slower projected future growth in licensed drivers points to slower growth in gasoline consumption. A parsimonious representation of age, income, lifecycle and location effects is developed and tested. We show how flexible methods also helped reveal fundamental problems with the available price data.

Risk and ambiguity in 10-Ks: An examination of cash holding and derivatives use

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 45, 608-631
We explore the role of ambiguity, as opposed to risk, in explaining firms' corporate financial policies. We create text based measures of ambiguity and risk for U.S. firms between 1995 and 2013. Measured ambiguity is high in for instance high tech industries, whereas the risk measure is high for homogeneous goods. Using within-firm variation to identify effects we find that greater ambiguity is associated with greater cash holdings and more risk with a higher probability of derivatives use. The results are in line with a simple model of liquidity management with ambiguity averse agents.

Heterogeneity and Aggregation

Journal of Economic Literature 2005 43(2), 347-391
This survey covers recent solutions to aggregation problems in three application areas, consumer demand analysis, consumption growth and wealth, and labor participation and wages. Each area involves treatment of heterogeneity and nonlinearity at the individual level. Three types of heterogeneity are highlighted: heterogeneity in individual tastes, heterogeneity in income and wealth risks and heterogeneity in market participation. Work in each area is illustrated using results from empirical data. The overall aim is to show how concerns faced by empirical researchers regarding aggregation can be addressed.

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950–2050

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1998 80(1), 15-27
Emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced-form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period of 1950–1990. Using the same set of income and population growth assumptions as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that the IPCC's widely used emissions growth projections exhibit significant and substantial departures from the implications of historical experience. Our model employs a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find clear evidence of an “inverse U” relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per-capita income.

How employee stock options and executive equity ownership affect long-term IPO operating performance

Journal of Corporate Finance 2007 13(5), 695-720
To ascertain whether the form of managerial compensation affects a firm's long-term operating performance, we track IPOs for 5 years after the expiration of the stabilization period. New public companies perform better when managers receive a balanced combination of stock option grants and equity ownership. Firms with unbalanced compensation arrangements, large option grants and little equity ownership or vice versa do not perform as well. This empirical finding is consistent with a theoretical explanation based on managerial risk aversion and the alignment of managerial and owner incentives.