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The up side of being down: Depression and crowdsourced forecasts

Journal of Banking & Finance 2025 179, 107526
This study examines the role of non-severe depression as a psychological anchor against overoptimism. Using earnings forecasts from Estimize, we find that an increase in the proportion of the U.S. population with depression is associated with improved forecast accuracy among users. This effect is concentrated among forecasts that are optimistic and analysts who take longer time to issue forecasts, highlighting reduced optimism and slow information processing as economic mechanisms that explain our results. We also show that this effect is distinct from the influence of temporary seasonal depression or other sentiment measures on decision-making. Overall, our research establishes a link between depression and crowdsourced financial evaluations

Financial decisions of minorities post-2008

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 149, 106811
We study the financial behavior of minorities over 2007-09. We find that after 2008 and compared to White Americans, African Americans and Hispanics have a higher propensity to increase risk tolerance, optimism, and allocations to risky assets and lower probability of exiting the stock market. These findings cannot be explained by changes in wealth or income, and we speculate that they may be due to the positive effects of the election of President Obama. Specifically, we find that the change in behavior by minorities from 2007 to 2009 is consistent with minorities updating their beliefs about future economic outcomes.