Yes. We show that aggregate stock returns predict aggregate U.S. employment, despite the industrial composition of publicly traded firms differing markedly from that of all firms, and the representativeness of public firms declining over time. We also show that appropriately reweighted stock returns predict industry and local labor market outcomes. We find the strongest evidence of an alignment of interests between shareholders and workers in the manufacturing sector, despite its declining labor share of output. Our findings suggest that at quarterly frequencies, product demand shocks are more important drivers of industry- and city-level stock returns than technology shocks.

We show that commercial mortgage borrowers behave opportunistically to attempt to obtain principal reductions. We develop a model in which lenders cannot perfectly observe borrowers’ use values and renegotiation is costly. We then exploit a tax rule change that reduced the cost of renegotiation. Consistent with the model predictions, borrowers with high private use values of the property are more likely to transfer into special servicing when lenders have a higher capacity to negotiate principal reductions after the rule change. Our results suggest adverse consequences of principal forgiveness for lenders.