The prior literature links cash holdings and returns (Simutin (2010), Palazzo (2012)). Using two signals of aggregate-funding availability, I find that the positive association between cash and returns only exists during constrained funding environments. In unconstrained periods, there is no association between cash and returns. The relation in constrained environments does not appear to be related to capital expenditures, expected return, or distress risk but is more prevalent in firms undertaking research and development (R&D) expenditures. This suggests that the association between cash and returns is more consistent with expanding (or maintaining) future growth opportunities rather than being attributable to differences in capital expenditures or risk.

ABSTRACT Management earnings forecasts expressed as a range have become the most common form of quantitative management guidance. Traditionally, the proxy for the sign and the magnitude of the information conveyed by these forecasts—the forecast news—is calculated as the difference between a pre‐forecast earnings expectation and the midpoint of the forecasted range. We provide strong evidence that this traditional measure understates the amount of information conveyed by range forecasts. More importantly, we demonstrate that information conveyed by the upper and lower bounds of the forecasts can be used to improve the classification of forecasts as conveying good or bad news and for calculating the magnitude of that news. We rely on these findings to suggest alternative methods of classifying management range forecasts as conveying good versus bad news and to refine the calculation of forecast news to include the broader information set. Our analysis also suggests that the information conveyed by the range when the forecasts are bundled (issued concurrent with an earnings announcement) is significantly different than when forecasts are not bundled. Overall, our study documents the importance of incorporating range‐related information when assessing the sign and the magnitude of the information conveyed by management range forecasts.

We find evidence that aggregate funding conditions play an instrumental role in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Funding conditions impact the benefits, participants and the number of deals transacted and this impact extends well beyond merger waves. Specifically, when aggregate funding conditions are favorable, the merger market is especially active and small, financially-constrained firms participate heavily. These same firms, however, are largely absent from the deal market when funding conditions are tight. Furthermore, investors view deals during favorable environments as relatively attractive, particularly if the deals are initiated by small bidders. In contrast, deals transacted by large firms during easy-money periods are viewed as value-destroying. We also document that these value-destroying deals are particularly prevalent among large bidders with significant potential for agency costs. Overall, our results suggest that aggregate funding conditions do not merely cause bidders to adjust the scope of their investment decisions consistent with capital rationing, but rather, the changing state of aggregate funding appears to significantly determine the size and composition of the M&A potential bidder pool.

We find evidence linking return momentum with macroeconomic conditions, namely, the funding environment. We show that winners outperform losers by a significant amount in restrictive funding states, while in expansive states, winners and losers perform similarly. This pattern is consistent with changing investor preferences for winners and losers following signaled shifts in funding availability. One plausible channel for this relation is the interaction between stock-level illiquidity and funding conditions. We find that liquidity risk is significantly priced during restrictive states, especially in loser stocks. Furthermore, loser stocks become more illiquid during restrictive conditions. Both effects help explain the relative performance difference between losers and winners across funding environments. Moreover, the funding environment influences the relationship between momentum and firm characteristics, after controlling for the influence of sentiment, market states and return dispersion. Overall, transitions in funding states appear to encourage investors to revise their factor pricing decisions, which produces inter-temporal variation in momentum.

ABSTRACT We document time-varying interrelations between aggregate funding conditions and the impact of operating leverage (OL) on stock returns. OL represents a primitive source of risk, which helps explain the well established unconditional relation between OL and future returns. However, the outperformance of firms with high OL occurs exclusively during periods of unconstrained funding. Although high OL represents operational inflexibility, when the Fed eases funding constraints, improved capital availability mitigates this inflexibility. Consequently, investors bid up the prices of stocks with high OL when aggregate funding constraints are loosened to reflect their lower risk and greater expected performance in unconstrained periods. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: E22; E44; E52; G11; G12; G14.