This paper contains a test of a new aspect of the informational content of dividend; namely, is there information in the timing of the announcements? The empirical evidence indicates that the market expects ‘bad news’ to be delivered late and that these expectations are confirmed. Mean excess returns of stock prices around late announcements are, depending on the assumed returns generating process, either significantly negative or insignificant while significantly positive around the entire population of announcements. Moreover, the proportion and magnitude of dividend reductions associated with late announcements are significantly larger than in the complete universe of announcements.

We provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of stock price behavior around the ex-dividend day in Japan. We find that prices rise on the ex-day and that dividend-related tax effects appear to be secondary. Returns around ex-dividend days are dominated by the proximity of many ex-days to the fiscal year end. Excess returns of 1 percent, which are independent of any dividend-related considerations, are higher than round-trip transaction costs on medium-sized transactions. Prices seem to imply selling pressure before and buying pressure at the start of the new fiscal year. These trading patterns appear to be motivated by intercorporate manipulative trading around the end of the firms’ fiscal year, which are unrelated to dividends.

[We provide a comprehensive empirical analysis of stock price behavior around the ex-dividend day in Japan. We find that prices rise on the ex-day and that dividend-related tax effects appear to be secondary. Returns around ex-dividend days are dominated by the proximity of many ex-days to the fiscal year end. Excess returns of 1 percent, which are independent of any dividend-related considerations, are higher than round-trip transaction costs on medium-sized transactions. Prices seem to imply selling pressure before and buying pressure at the start of the new fiscal year. These trading patterns appear to be motivated by intercorporate manipulative trading around the end of the firms' fiscal year, which are unrelated to dividends.]

We analyze the effect of parameter uncertainty on equilibrium asset prices. For the symmetric case, when the amount of estimation risk is the same for all securities, the existing literature argues that parameter uncertainty is largely irrelevant for equilibrium. Our results differ. We find that symmetric estimation risk affects equilibrium values of relative asset prices, expected returns, market weights, and betas.

Prior theoretical work on estimation risk generally has been restricted to single-period, returns-based models in which the investor must estimate the vector of expected returns but the covariance matrix is known. This paper extends the literature on parameter uncertainty in several ways. First, we analyze asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a model based on payoffs. Second, we explore the effects of both symmetric and asymmetric estimation risk on equilibrium asset prices when the covariance matrix for payoffs must also be estimated. Finally, we investigate the effects on equilibrium of asymmetric parameter uncertainty in a simple multiperiod model.

ABSTRACT The tools provided by option‐pricing theory are used to examine the wealth effects of interfirm cash tender offers. The analysis provides evidence consistent with the “synergy” theory of corporate takeovers and has implications concerning the economic effects of regulations of cash tender offers. The analysis further suggests that the market prices information uncertainty in a manner not captured by the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model. The study introduces a technique for unbundling the prices of a primary asset and a contingent claim when only the prices of the combination are observed.