The purpose of this paper is to construct a leading index for the United States by deriving a set of weights based on Kalman filters. The weights have certain optimality properties and are related to the existing weighting methods of A. F. Burns and W. C. Mitchell (1946), S. H. Hymans (1973), and A. J. Auerbach (1982). The Kalman filter leading index is compared with the CIBCR leading composite index and an index suggested by Auerbach by subjecting all indexes to a number of tests. The results of the tests are mixed, but suggest that the use of Kalman filters as a way of constructing leading indexes is encouraging. Copyright 1990 by MIT Press.

Recently developed methods in the analysis and measurement of latent factor models for time series are utilised to study international business cycles and their relationship to international stockmarket price behaviour. An advantage of these methods is that the duality properties between time domain and frequency domain approaches for investigating the properties of time series can be exploited to identify and model business cycles. The empirical results show that the six countries studied, which include the United States, Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany and Japan, exhibit coherent national business cycles, although these cycles are not all alike. It is also found that international coherence in economic activity has increased in the flexible exchange rate period, although it is not as strong as it is for the national business cycles. The coherence between stockmarket prices and business cycles is not strong, both nationally and internationally, but international stockmarkets appear to show greater mutual coherence than do the corresponding economies.

Using panel data on Australian households, the relationship between risk tolerance and past stock returns is investigated across economic and financial cycles, as well as over the life-cycle and across generations. Risk tolerance is found to be procyclical with stock returns over an eight year horizon. The empirical results also reveal an inverted J-curve age risk profile, and the presence of a longer cycle across generations. Results are robust to controlling for financial crises, return volatility, real estate returns and home bias.

Asset market interconnectedness can give rise to significant contagion risks during periods of financial crises that extend beyond the risks associated with changes in volatilities and correlations. These channels include the transmission of shocks operating through changes in the higher order comoments of asset returns, including changes in coskewness arising from changes in the interaction between volatility and average returns across asset markets. These additional contagion channels have nontrivial implications for the pricing of options through changes in the payoff probability structure and more generally, in the management of financial risks. The effects of incorrectly pricing risk has proved to be significant during many financial crises, including the subprime crisis from mid 2007 to mid 2008, the Great Recession beginning 2008 and the European debt crisis from 2010. Using an exchange options model, the effects of changes in the comoments of asset returns across asset markets are investigated with special emphasis given to understanding the effects on hedging risk during financial crises. The results reveal that by not correctly pricing the risks arising from higher order moments during financial crises, there is significant mispricing of options, while hedged portfolios during noncrisis periods become exposed to price movements in times of crises.

A general measure of asset market interdependence based on higher order comoments is developed and applied to studying weekly U.S. and eurozone equity returns from 1990 to 2017. A new test of independence is also developed. The empirical results show that interdependence peaks during the global financial crisis with the covariance and covolatility comoments being the dominant factors. Conditioning the interdependence measure on volatility does not change the overall qualitative results. Implications of the results for constructing diversified portfolios reveal economic benefits from portfolios based on higher order comoments than the usual assumption of bivariate normality, especially during the GFC. The empirical results also provide evidence that European Union membership led to higher interdependence than did the adoption of the common currency.