Journal Article The Influence of Agricultural Machinery and the Automobile on Farming Operations Get access H. W. Peck H. W. Peck University of Syracuse Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 41, Issue 3, May 1927, Pages 534–544, https://doi.org/10.2307/1883705 Published: 01 May 1927

Journal Article Hawtrey's the Gold Standard in Theory and Practice Get access Arthur W. Marget Arthur W. Marget University of Minnesota Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 42, Issue 1, November 1927, Pages 140–152, https://doi.org/10.2307/1885369 Published: 01 November 1927

THE comprehensive and representative character of bank debits -bank clearings, before the commencement of reports for debits as a measure of business volumes is becoming more fully recognized with accumulating experience. There is, to be sure, some difference of opinion concerning the adequacy of debits as a measure of the physical volume of business.' Concerning the fitness of debits as a measure of the money volume of business, however, there is no considerable controversy; and the doctrine that debits furnishes the best single measure of the aggregate value of business transactions lacks little of being fully established. Moreover, it is now generally held that the fluctuations of debits in New York City reflect speculative movements in addition to business variations; and it is therefore customary to use debits New York City as more truly indicating the business transactions incident to industrial and commercial operations. That some portion of the variation in cities outside New York is speculative cannot be doubted, and that a large part of the variation in New York City arises from purely business transactions is also evident. The effect of speculative operations on outside debits is less clearly apparent than in New York, however, and a record of such debits may be accepted as a general measure of business activity. With the growing emphasis, in the study of business conditions, upon prompt information concerning brief developments, it becomes desirable to trace weekly figures for outside bank debits. The interpretation of such figures, with a view to appraising current tendencies within a particular phase of the business cycle, encounters serious obstacles. These obstacles are not identical with those which impede the use of aggregate monthly bank debits.2 For monthly data, the principal difficulties include: the making of allowances for holidays, the adjustment of figures for months having five Sundays, and the allocating of weeks which extend from one month into the following. Of these, only the first is of consequence in the study of weekly data: the irregular number of reporting days per week due to the very existence of holidays, the lack of uniformity in the observance of holidays in different cities, the uncertain effect on business volumes (both as respects extent and timing) of the observance of holidays, and the possibility that a particular holiday may at times fall within the same week as some other date (such as the first of the month) having a peculiar effect upon debits all these facts help to explain the effect of holidays upon the weekly figures. There are difficulties met with in the analysis of weekly data not encountered at least directly in the study of monthly aggregates. Chief of these arises in the custom for certain payments to be made on or about particular days of each month, with the result that there are considerable temporary expansions and contractions in debits at more or less regular times within the month. The fact that a particular day of the month does not fall on the same day of the week in each of several years implies an annual shifting of the weekly manifestations of these expansions and contractions. The effect upon the actual weekly figures for debits is most perplexing. It should be noted, moreover, that this intramonthly variation is not uniform for the twelve months of the year. In one month it is relatively intense, in another relatively slight; and this lack of uniformity is emphasized by the existence of certain large-scale financial transactions which distort the debits figures in particular months of each year. A further special difficulty encountered in the analysis of weekly data is due to the very detail sought in the weekly picture. The monthly aggregate marking the peak whether cyclical or seasonal in debits does not disclose the location of the peak within that month. This location becomes of moment in the study of weekly series; and the possibility that the peak effect as a whole is distributed, in unknown and perhaps unknowable proportion, between two adjacent weeks constitutes a serious obstacle in the analysis. 1 See Carl Snyder, this REVIEW, October I924, p. 256, and April I926, p, 85, for presentation of the case for the deflation of debits in order to measure physical volumes of business. 2 See this REVIEW, April 1926, p. 66.

FROM the standpoint of the physical volume of production, the year I926 was one of extraordinary growth. Actual output of both manufacture and mining established new high records for all time and agricultural production, the largest in the past 6 years, has been exceeded only in 1920 (Tables A and H). In each of these major lines of activity, the increase in the volume of production from the level of the preceding year was larger tl' an that normally to be expected even in a growing country like the United States. Such is the record as presented in graphic form on Chart i and in tabular form in Table B. Moreover, both mineral and industrial production, as

CURVE A, speculation, now appears in the index of general business conditions, substantially as developed in the I923 revision.' The curve is obtained by averaging cycles for bank debits in New York City and for the DowJones average of industrial stock prices. It did not appear in I923 that any secular trend was present in these two constituents; and, although the accumulation of data since that time has rendered the presence of an upward secular trend in each series increasingly evident, it is only recently that we have become confident of the possibility of measuring even approximately such trends. In Curve A as it has been appearing, therefore, no correction for trend has been made; and, for each constituent, the actual items are expressed as per cent deviations from assumed horizontal lines. These deviations are then used in determining the cycle figures. In the case of the'New York bank debits an adjustment is necessary because of the presence of seasonal variation.2 The seasonal correction for the bank debits figures allows not only for annually recurrent fluctuations which are essentially seasonal in character, but also for the effect of extraordinary financial transactions which take place quarterly. It is believed that the present Curve A gives a substantially accurate record of the short-time fluctuations of the speculative type since the war. The fact, however, that this curve is not corrected for secular trend accounts for its extraordinary elevation during the last three years, and leaves room for a misunderstanding of the current position of the curve because of its apparent extreme departure from a supposed horizontal normal. It is therefore desirable to revise the curve by making due allowance for secular trend, so far as it is now possible to measure such trend. Moreover, it has now become apparent that Curve A can be improved by excluding from it the series for New York bank debits. Finally, it is desirable to replace the Dow-Jones average of industrial stock prices by new averages which rest upon a wider sampling of market transactions. It is the object of the present article to discuss these several changes by which the revised Curve A is substituted for that heretofore used in the index chart.

T HE index numbers of prices here presented in monthly form for the period I795 to I824 were constructed as a part of a study of the financial history of the United States during and immediately following the War of i8I2.1 To students of international trade, government finance, and money, banking, and prices, the developments of a hundred years ago are of interest because of the similarity between that period and the recent war and post-war period. It is hoped that the index numbers of commodity prices at wholesale may be of service to students of the history of these years. Such series provide a continuous record around which non-quantitative data may be organized, and, being sensitive barometers of economic life, they enable us to say something concerning the timing and the magnitude of the effect of the forces at work. A description of the construction of the indexes of prices in the United States from I795 to I824 is given in Part I below. Three indexes of prices in the Boston marketone of the prices of domestically produced goods, one of imported goods, and one of domes'tically produced and imported goods (the all commodities index) have been computed by months for the 30 years. In this section also indexes of prices of domestic goods quoted in the markets of New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore, from i8io to I8I9, are presented. In Part II the index numbers for the years i802-2o,have been examined to find out when business recessions and crises occurred, and some non-statistical material has been quoted which helps to explain the movements of prices in this period. Our conclusions concerning the causes of fluctuations in prices must necessarily be tentative, for the data upon which our judgment must be based are fragmentary.

T HE methods followed in the original construction of our index of business conditions were fully set forth in this REVIEW for April I919; and such changes as have been found necessary since I919 have been explained, as occasion offered, in subsequent numbers. Our methods of interpreting the index have never been presented so exhaustively', because in part they have developed out of our experience in handling current data and have been presented only in our Weekly Letters as occasion required. It has therefore happened that our interpretation of the index has not always been fully understood; and misunderstanding is easy unless any particular passage is interpreted not only with reference to its immediate context but also with reference to what has gone before. present article is devoted partly to various matters concerning which we sometimes receive inquiries, and partly to certain criticisms which have been offered recently, particularly those of Mr. Karl G. Karsten in his paper on The Harvard Business Indexes -A New Interpretation in the Journal of the American Statistical Association for December I926.

Reviews the book "The Mathematics of Business," by W.V. Lovitt and H.F. Holtzclaw.

Abstract In a manufacturing business, according to the author's view, there are only two primary and fundamental activities, which should be made to embrace all operating factors and the costs attached to them, the two activities are those of production and distribution. Management and administration in a manufacturing business or in any other business, are not ends in themselves. In manufacturing the administrative function must concern itself either with problems of production or problems of distribution. Financial activities of an internal nature over which management has control must also be viewed as assisting production and distribution in the proportion that these two fundamental divisions utilize the funds of the business. It is generally admitted that modern cost accounting methods lead to an accurate knowledge of product cost, costs which express themselves in the various inventories of manufactured product, and, of course, in the inventories in process. Cost accounting methods also enable one to recognize and give effect to all the variable production factors that enter into the manufacture of a variety of goods.