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Does loan renegotiation differ by securitization status? A transition probability study

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2013 22(3), 513-527
This paper examines whether securitization has an ex-post effect on residential loan renegotiation. It makes two main contributions to the existing literature. First, this paper evaluates the re-default and self-cure rates of loans using bank-reported loan renegotiation data. Second, it conducts a transition probability study to better understand the re-default and self-cure dynamics by time and previous loan state. I find that previously delinquent portfolio loans are less likely to re-default and more likely to self-cure than comparable securitized loans during the intermediate time frame, but the difference diminishes afterwards. For previously cured loans, portfolio loans and securitized loans have generally similar re-default and self-cure rates over time. This paper emphasizes that it is important to understand the dynamic transition behavior of mortgage loans.

Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-Term Institutions Better Informed?

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(2), 893-924
[We show that the positive relation between institutional ownership and future stock returns documented in Gompers and Metrick (2001) is driven by shortterm institutions. Furthermore, short-term institutions' trading forecasts future stock returns. This predictability does not reverse in the long run and is stronger for small and growth stocks. Short-term institutions' trading is also positively related to future earnings surprises. By contrast, long-term institutions' trading does not forecast future returns, nor is it related to future earnings news. Our results are consistent with the view that short-term institutions are better informed and they trade actively to exploit their informational advantage.]

The effect of mortgage broker licensing under the originate-to-distribute model: Evidence from the U.S. mortgage market

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2018 35, 70-85
By exploiting state-level variations in mortgage broker licensing regulations, we examine how licensing requirements affect mortgage loan performances and the mortgage origination market. Using data on private label securitized loans, we find that loans in states with a toughened broker licensing had a smaller increase in default rates. This effect is larger in the years leading up to the financial crisis, for borrowers with lower credit scores, cash-out-refinance loans, high-minority neighborhoods, and loans originated by nonbanks. The improved performance with toughened broker licensing is only partially reflected in loan pricing. Stronger broker licensing requirements have slightly positive effects on the mortgage approval rates, and are associated with overall less risky borrowers and loan characteristics in applications and in originations.

L’incidence de la vente à découvert sur les réactions du marchéà la publication des résultats

Contemporary Accounting Research 2010 27(2), 356-356
Les auteurs examinent l’incidence de la demande inhérente que supposent les positions courtes en étudiant dans quelle mesure les réactions des cours boursiers à la publication des résultats dépendent du niveau des positions courtes. Selon leurs constatations, si les nouvelles publiées sont extrêmement positives ou extrêmement négatives, la demande inhérente entraîne à la hausse le cours des actions à proximité de la date de la publication des résultats, la hausse étant plus prononcée dans le cas des nouvelles positives que des nouvelles négatives. Plus précisément, la réaction initiale du marchéà des résultats imprévus extrêmement positifs est plus importante dans le cas d’entreprises ayant des niveaux élevés de positions à découvert. En revanche, lorsque les résultats imprévus sont extrêmement négatifs, la réaction initiale du marché est moins négative dans le cas d’entreprises dont le niveau des positions à découvert est élevé. Les auteurs constatent au surplus que l’ampleur du mouvement réactif suivant la publication des résultats est plus modeste (plus marquée) dans le cas de résultats imprévus extrêmement positifs (négatifs) pour les entreprises dont les positions à découvert sont importantes.

Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2013 26(8), 1890-1912
[We show that Treasury security prices in the secondary market decrease significantly in the few days before Treasury auctions and recover shortly thereafter, even though the time and amount of each auction are announced in advance. These results are linked to dealers' limited risk-bearing capacity and end-investors' imperfect capital mobility, highlighting the important role of frictions even in very liquid financial markets. Our results imply a hidden issuance cost to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, estimated to be 9 to 18 bps of the auction size, or over half a billion dollars for the issuance size in 2007.]

Does Enhanced Disclosure Really Reduce Agency Costs? Evidence from the Diversion of Corporate Resources

The Accounting Review 2012 87(1), 199-229
This study investigates whether extensive disclosure reduces managerial expropriation of corporate resources by examining the potential effects of enhanced reporting on the values of cash assets and investment ventures, respectively. We uncover evidence that liquid asset holdings are valued at a discount by firms with fewer disclosure practices than their more transparent counterparts. Moreover, disclosure activity substantially improves the value of cash assets in excess of requirements for operations and investment. These findings suggest that detailed reporting facilitates the scrutiny and discipline of capital markets, thus preventing the diversion of cash reserves. In further support of the disciplinary power of greater disclosure, we find that value-destroying projects, through internal capital investment and external acquisitions, are concentrated in firms adopting opaque disclosure policies. Collectively, our results support the premise that extensive disclosure impairs insiders' abilities to utilize corporate resources in a self-serving manner. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources indicated in the text..

The Effect of Short Selling on Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements

Contemporary Accounting Research 2010 27(2), 348-348
This paper examines the effect of the inherent demand implied by short interest by studying how stock price reactions to earnings announcements depend on the level of short interest. We find that, for extreme good and bad news events, the inherent demand increases stock prices around the earnings announcement date, with the effect being stronger for good news relative to bad news. Specifically, the initial market reaction to an extreme positive earnings surprise is larger for firms with high levels of short interest. On the other hand, for an extreme negative earnings surprise event, the initial market reaction is less negative for heavily shorted firms. Furthermore, we find that the post‐earnings‐announcement drift is smaller (larger) in magnitude for extreme positive (negative) earnings surprises for the heavily shorted firms.

The Effect of Short Selling on Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2010 27(2), 609-638
This paper examines the effect of the inherent demand implied by short interest by studying how stock price reactions to earnings announcements depend on the level of short interest. We find that, for extreme good and bad news events, the inherent demand increases stock prices around the earnings announcement date, with the effect being stronger for good news relative to bad news. Specifically, the initial market reaction to an extreme positive earnings surprise is larger for firms with high levels of short interest. On the other hand, for an extreme negative earnings surprise event, the initial market reaction is less negative for heavily shorted firms. Furthermore, we find that the post-earnings-announcement drift is smaller (larger) in magnitude for extreme positive (negative) earnings surprises for the heavily shorted firms.

Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-term Institutions Better Informed?

Review of Financial Studies 2009 22(2), 893-924
We show that the positive relation between institutional ownership and future stock returns documented in Gompers and Metrick (2001) is driven by short-term institutions. Furthermore, short-term institutions' trading forecasts future stock returns. This predictability does not reverse in the long run and is stronger for small and growth stocks. Short-term institutions' trading is also positively related to future earnings surprises. By contrast, long-term institutions' trading does not forecast future returns, nor is it related to future earnings news. Our results are consistent with the view that short-term institutions are better informed and they trade actively to exploit their informational advantage.

Quality of PIN estimates and the PIN-return relationship

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 43, 137-149
This paper provides new evidence concerning the probability of informed trading (PIN) and the PIN-return relationship. We take measures to overcome known estimation biases and improve the quality of quarterly PIN estimates. We use the average of a firm’s PIN estimates in four consecutive quarters to smooth out the effect of seasonal variation in trading activities. We find that when high-quality PIN estimates are used, the Fama–MacBeth cross-sectional regressions show stronger evidence for the positive PIN-return relationship than documented in the prior literature. This finding is robust to controls for the January, liquidity, and momentum effects.