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Desegregation and Black Dropout Rates

American Economic Review 2004 94(4), 919-943
In 1954 the United States Supreme Court ruled that separate schools for black and white children were “inherently unequal.” This paper studies whether the desegregation plans of the next 30 years benefited black and white students in desegregated school districts. Data from the 1970 and 1980 censuses suggest desegregation plans of the 1970's reduced high school dropout rates of blacks by two to three percentage points during this decade. No significant change is observed among whites. The results are robust to controls for family income, parental education, and state- and region-specific trends, as well as to tests for selective migration.

Teacher Testing, Teacher Education, and Teacher Characteristics

American Economic Review 2004 94(2), 241-246
School officials and legislators have long been concerned with the possibility of declining teacher quality (see e.g., Sean Corcoran et al., 2002). Beginning in the 1960's, states began testing prospective teachers in a direct effort to ensure that teachers meet minimum standards for basic skills and subject knowledge. By 1999, 41 states required applicants to pass some sort of standardized certification test. As a theoretical matter, however, the impact of such testing is ambiguous. Test requirements may establish a minimum achievement standard, as their proponents hope. On the other hand, testing and other certification requirements may deter some qualified applicants from teaching if these requirements are perceived as costly. This is the barriers-to-entry story first noted in the occupational licensing context by Milton F. Friedman and Simon Kuznets (1945). Another concern with job applicant testing is the possibility of an adverse impact on minority candidates, who usually do worse on tests (see David Autor and David Scarborough [2003] for a recent study). Paralleling increased state involvement in teacher certification is the increase in teachers' educational credentials, especially in public schools. For example, in 1971, over two-thirds of public-school teachers had a B.A., while only 27 percent had a master's or education specialist's degree. By 1991, however, over half of public school teachers (52.6 percent) had a master's or education specialist's degree. In contrast, the proportion of private-school teachers

Gambling at Lucky Stores: Empirical Evidence from State Lottery Sales

American Economic Review 2008 98(1), 458-473
We show that the week after selling a large-prize Texas Lotto winning ticket, a retailer experiences a 12 to 38 percent relative increase in ticket sales. Some increase persists for up to 40 weeks. We document that the sales response increases with jackpot size and is larger in areas with more economically disadvantaged populations. Sales patterns across games and across retailers are not consistent with most advertising explanations. Furthermore, response patterns are not consistent with representativeness-based explanations for the hot hand or gambler's fallacy; we suggest an alternative explanation for the observed "lucky store" effect.

Climate Change and Birth Weight

American Economic Review 2009 99(2), 211-217 open access
There is a growing consensus that emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activity will alter the earth’s climate, most notably by causing temperatures, precipitation levels, and weather variability to increase. The design of optimal climate change mitigation policies requires estimates of the health and other benefits of reductions in greenhouse gases; current evidence on the magnitude of the direct and indirect impacts, however, is considered insufficient for reliable conclusions (A. J. McMichael et al. 2003).

The Effects of Poor Neonatal Health on Children's Cognitive Development

American Economic Review 2014 104(12), 3921-3955
We make use of a new data resource--merged birth and school records for all children born in Florida from 1992 to 2002--to study the relationship between birth weight and cognitive development. Using singletons as well as twin and sibling fixed effects models, we find that the effects of early health on cognitive development are essentially constant through the school career; that these effects are similar across a wide range of family backgrounds; and that they are invariant to measures of school quality. We conclude that the effects of early health on adult outcomes are therefore set very early.

Not Too Late: Improving Academic Outcomes among Adolescents

American Economic Review 2023 113(3), 738-765
Improving academic outcomes for economically disadvantaged students has proven challenging, particularly for children at older ages. We present two large-scale randomized controlled trials of a high-dosage tutoring program delivered to secondary school students in Chicago. One innovation is to use paraprofessional tutors to hold down cost, thereby increasing scalability. Participating in math tutoring increases math test scores by 0.18 to 0.40 standard deviations, and increases math and nonmath course grades. These effects persist into future years. The data are consistent with increased personalization of instruction as a mechanism. The benefit-cost ratio is comparable to many successful early childhood programs.