Knowledge that Transforms

Human estimation and inference are subject to systematic biases such as overconfidence and over-optimism. In contrast to prior research that has identified multiple negative consequences of these biases, we focus on positive effects. We empirically examine a setting in which over-optimism a) is a related but different bias from overconfidence, b) emerges dynamically in a rational economic framework, and c) generates higher managerial effort. Importantly, this additional effort improves firm profitability and market value.

We provide evidence that sophisticated investors like short sellers, option traders, and financial institutions are more informed when trading stocks of companies with more connected board members. For firms with large director networks, the annualized return difference between the highest and lowest quintile of informed trading ranges from 4% to 7.2% compared to the same return difference in firms with less connected directors. Sophisticated investors better predict outcomes of upcoming earnings surprises and firm-specific news sentiment for companies with more connected directors. Changes in board connectedness are positively associated with changes in measures of adverse selection.

Using management earnings forecasts over the period 1996–2010, I find that the sensitivity of forecast revisions to contemporaneous stock returns is increasing in the amount of investors’ private information in prices. This effect remains after controlling for various confounds and is robust to the use of mutual fund redemptions as a shock to price changes that is exogenous to fundamental news. Furthermore, investors’ private information helps managers improve their forecast accuracy. Together, these findings suggest that stock prices contain information that managers do not otherwise have regarding firms’ fundamentals, and that managers incorporate this information in their earnings forecasts.

We investigate the economic consequences of the Basel III requirement to include unrealized fair value gains and losses on available-for-sale (AFS) securities in regulatory capital. Using data for U.S. banks we find negative market reactions around news indicating an increased likelihood of this regulatory change being implemented, consistent with increased regulatory costs. We also find that banks affected by this regulation reduce their investment in risky AFS securities relative to unaffected banks. This result suggests that extending the use of fair values for regulatory purposes reduces ex ante risk taking.

We investigate the extent to which capitalization of expected capital gains taxes and the lock-in effect induced by the capital gains tax rate differential simultaneously impact the pricing and underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs). Using a large sample of IPOs from 1987 to 2010, we estimate regressions of offer prices and first-day underpricing on tax rates. Supporting tax capitalization, IPO offer prices decrease in long-term capital gains taxes. Supporting lock-in, IPO underpricing increases in the long-term and short-term tax rate differential. These effects are consistent with capital gains taxes simultaneously reducing IPO proceeds and exacerbating IPO underpricing.

This study investigates the relation between customer concentration and a supplier׳s cost of equity capital. We hypothesize that a more concentrated customer base increases a supplier׳s risk, which results in a higher cost of equity. Our results show a positive association between customer concentration and a supplier׳s cost of equity, and this relation is more pronounced for suppliers that are more likely to lose major customers or that are more prone to larger losses if they lose such customers. Further, results from a propensity score matched sample analysis and instrumental variables regressions imply that our findings are robust to accounting for endogeneity. We also provide evidence that a supplier with a concentrated base of safer government customers has a lower cost of equity. Finally, we document a positive relation between corporate customer concentration and a supplier’s cost of debt. Overall, our findings suggest that the composition and concentration of a supplier’s customer base significantly impact its financing costs.

Investment banks and issuers of Chinese domestic IPOs became fully responsible for IPO offer prices only on June 10, 2009. Before this regulatory reform, the optimistic bias in post-IPO earnings forecasts is highly comparable across affiliated and unaffiliated analysts. Afterward, the forecasts of affiliated analysts are 33 percentage points more positively distorted on average. In the first 90 days after an IPO, this relative forecast bias even increases to 63 percentage points and enlarges further when the issuer׳s stock price drops in the aftermarket. Affiliated analysts distort especially their forecasts for fiscal years further away from the forecast release date.