Knowledge that Transforms

This survey outlines the evolution of thought leading to the rrecent delopments in the study of business cycles.The subject is almost coextensive with short-term macrodynamics and has a large interface withmeconomics of growth, money, inflation, and expectations.The coverage is therefore both very extensive , and selective. The paper first summarizes the "stylized facts" that ought to be explained by the theory.This part discusses the varying dimensions of business cycles; their timing, amplitude, and diffusion features; some international aspects; and recent changes. The next part is a review of the literature on "self-sustaining" cycles. It notes some of the older theories and proceeds to more recent models driven by changes in investment, credit, and price-cost-profit relations. These models are mainly endogenous and deterministic.Exogenous factors and stochastic elements gain importance in the part on the modern theories of cyclical response to monetary and real disturbances.The early monetarist interpretations of the cycle are followed by the newer equilibrium models with price misperceptions and intertemporal substitution of labor. Monetary shocks continue to be used but the emphasis shifts from nominal demand changes and lagged price adjustments to informational lags and supply reactions. Various problems arise, revealed by intensive testing and criticisms.This prompts new attempts to explain the persistence of'cyclical movements and the roles of uncertainty and financial instability, real shocks, and gradual price adjustments. One conclusion is that business cycle research will profit most from (a)the updating of findings from the historical and statistical studies, and (b)using the results to eliminate inconsistencies with the evidence and to move toward a realistic synthesis of the surviving elements of the extant theories.

Income comparisons between persons or groups of persons in different countries are a special field of inquiry because there are different currency units. For the most part, the other theoretical and empirical problems encountered in international income comparisons are similar to those of within-nation comparisons between different persons at the same time or different groups of persons either interspatially or, what is more common, intertemporally (e.g., constant price series of national income). The qualifications mainly and the most part are included because some writers hold that international comparisons are complicated or even invalidated by differences in consumption patterns. Sometimes differences in tastes are held to underlie these variations in consumption patterns, variations that are often much larger between countries than those found between regions within a country or between different periods in the same country. This essay focuses, in its methodological aspects, on these special problems. The basic problems that are common to international and within-nation comparisons are left to the standard literature on national accounts.2 We turn now to the currency unit problems and reserve the question of tastes for a later section.

The problem of expanding food supply has been made more complex and more dependent on technological progress by the encroachment of a burgeoning population on a limited land area. Rapid growth in the rural labor force in the low-income developing countries not only increases the problem of providing adequate employment, particularly in the face of diminishing scope for expanding the land area, but also reduces the possibility of solving poverty problems simply by a redistribution of assets and income flows. Section II reviews past trends and current levels of food production, trade, and consumption. Section III discusses a controversial issue: the extent and seriousness of food deprivation. These sections lead to the same conclusion: the choice of development strategy is decisive in determining the level at which the food equation balances. An examination of contrasting development strategies and their implications for food production (Section IV) is followed by an exploration of the emerging consensus on the complex and difficult task of implementing a unimodal pattern of accelerated agricultural development, consistent with a high rate of growth in employment and food consumption. Interacting health-, nutrition-, and family-planning programs are viewed as important claimants of organizational and other resources. The review leadsmore » to the conclusion that reduction of malnutrition and related manifestations of poverty requires a set of interacting forces, characterized as a ring, that link nutritional need, generation of effective demand for food on the part of the poor, increased employment, a strategy of development that structures demand towards goods and services that have a high employment content, production of wage goods, and an emphasis on growth in agriculture. 183 references, 4 tables.« less