Knowledge that Transforms

Short-term traders could affect the informativeness of stock prices about long-run fundamentals. Less (more) short-termism may thus induce managers to rely more (less) on stock prices in real investment decisions. Supporting this notion, we show that the investment-to-price sensitivity is inversely related to two short-termism proxies (controlling for firm size): institutional churn and liquidity. We confirm this finding using decimalization and an increase in mutual fund disclosure frequency as exogenous shocks to short-termism. Furthermore, short-termism is associated with an increased likelihood of voluntary capital expenditure forecasts by managers, suggesting a greater tendency to solicit market feedback when short-termism is high.

According to recent theoretical work, a more transparent and precise benchmark assessment should positively impact liquidity in the underlying market. We exploit a benchmark regime change in the $289 trillion interest rate swaps market to test this prediction. Utilizing proprietary electronic order book data, we find improved liquidity effects in the USD swaps market following the transition to the regulated ICE Swap Rate. Regulations that improve the methodology and oversight of benchmarks can, therefore, impact markets positively. Conservative estimates of direct savings in a single swap tenor on one trading platform are in the region of $4 million - $7 million.

Previous research shows that Democrat- and Republican-leaning investors hold different stock market expectations. In this paper, I identify a novel channel through which political opinions affect investor behavior. Instead of political affiliation, I consider nonpartisan evaluations of the executive from presidential approval rating polls. I find that large net disapproval over the U.S. president’s job is followed by low stock returns, especially in times of high political uncertainty and low market-wide sentiment. Notably, this mechanism explains away Santa-Clara and Valkanov’s (2003) “presidential puzzle.” Overall, the findings suggest that nonpartisan political views have a substantial impact on stock prices.