[This paper introduces a new approach to the empirical testing of the Lucas-Sargent-Wallace (LSW) "policy ineffectiveness proposition," which compares the LSW hypothesis with an alternative that states that prices respond fully in the long run, but only gradually in the short run, to nominal aggregate demand disturbances. The empirical equations, estimated for a new set of quarterly data extending back to 1890, exhibit uniformly high responses of real output and low responses of price changes to anticipated changes in nominal GNP. The paper compares and tests three alternative methods of introducing "persistence effects" into the LSW framework.]

The paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar GNP, taps previously unused data sources, and develops new estimates for the periods 1869-1908 and 1869-1928. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation, communications, and construction sectors and estimates of the consumer price index. New measures of real GNP, nominal GNP, and the GNP deflator are developed. The new estimates of real GNP are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional Kuznets-Kendrick series but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others. The new estimates of the GNP deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than those in the postwar period.

This paper introduces a new approach to the empirical testing of the Lucas-Sargent-Wallace (LSW) "policy ineffectiveness proposition," which compares the LSW hypothesis with an alternative that states that prices respond fully in the long run, but only gradually in the short run, to nominal aggregate demand disturbances. The empirical equations, estimated for a new set of quarterly data extending back to 1890, exhibit uniformly high responses of real output and low responses of price changes to anticipated changes in nominal GNP. The paper compares and tests three alternative methods of introducing "persistence effects" into the LSW framework.

The paper develops new methodology for the estimation of prewar GNP, taps previously unused data sources, and develops new estimates for the periods 1869-1908 and 1869-1928. Primary among the new data sources are direct measures of output in the transportation, communications, and construction sectors and estimates of the consumer price index. New measures of real GNP, nominal GNP, and the GNP deflator are developed. The new estimates of real GNP are as volatile on average over the business cycle as the traditional Kuznets-Kendrick series but dampen the amplitude of some cycles while raising the amplitude of others. The new estimates of the GNP deflator are distinctly less volatile than the traditional series and in fact no more volatile than those in the postwar period.