Knowledge that Transforms

Recent Publications Get access The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 72, Issue 3, August 1958, Page 475, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/72.3.475 Published: 01 August 1958

Recent Publications Get access The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 72, Issue 1, February 1958, Pages 153–155, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/72.1.153 Published: 01 February 1958

Journal Article Recent Publications Get access The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 72, Issue 2, May 1958, Pages 304–306, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/72.2.304 Published: 01 May 1958

Journal Article Culbertson on Interest Structure: Reply Get access J. M. Culbertson J. M. Culbertson University of Wisconsin Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 72, Issue 4, November 1958, Pages 607–613, https://doi.org/10.2307/1884340 Published: 01 November 1958

Journal Article Tariffs and the Balance of Payments: Reply Get access S. A. Ozga S. A. Ozga London School of Economics Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 72, Issue 2, May 1958, Pages 302–303, https://doi.org/10.2307/1880605 Published: 01 May 1958

Journal Article The Rockefeller Report: Implications for Fiscal and Monetary Policy Get access Arthur Smithies Arthur Smithies Harvard University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 72, Issue 3, August 1958, Pages 472–474, https://doi.org/10.2307/1882238 Published: 01 August 1958

Investments in United States Government Securities by Nonfinancial Corporations, 1952–56: Reply Get access Hyman P. Minsky Hyman P. Minsky Brown University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 72, Issue 2, May 1958, Pages 297–300, https://doi.org/10.2307/1880603 Published: 01 May 1958

I. Introduction, 558. — II. Some alternative wars and their economic impacts, 558. — III. Alternative suggestions for an over-all expenditure ration, 563. — IV. A pessimistic but realistic program, 569. — V. Concluding comment, 572.

Although current theory of the maturity structure of interest rates is in no sense complete or integrated, it is a far more acceptable body of doctrine than is indicated in John Culbertson's recent article.' It is true that since the theory exists only among the pages of scattered journal articles it is extremely difficult for one to form a correct perspective of its current status. Culbertson's article, while informative and interesting in its description of institutional demand for securities, does little to lessen this difficulty since it presents a description of the current theory that is both incomplete and, in places, incorrect. This note will set forth an interpretation of existing theory and will discuss Culbertson's theoretical treatment of expectations.2 Both because of its development and for expositional convenience, the theory will be discussed under two headings: expectations and uncertainty. The discussion of expectations refers to the influence on present interest rates of expected future rates while the discussion of uncertainty refers to the influence on present rates of uncertainty of future rates. The term expectations refers to a measure of central tendency and the terms uncertainty and risk both refer to measures of dispersion of an investor's subjective probability distribution of anticipated outcomes. Irving Fisher's statement concerning expectations -the present long rate is an average of expected short rates discounted over the life of the longest security assumes unanimous and certain expectations of future interest rates. The current version relating to expectations, developed by John Hicks,4 Nicholas Kaldor,5 Michal