We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the term structure of nominal interest rates. In a general equilibrium model populated by an uncertainty averse agent, we show that political uncertainty not only affects the yield curve and the corresponding volatility term structure but also bond risk premia carry a premium for political uncertainty. Our model simultaneously captures both the shape of the yield curve and the hump shape of yield volatilities, a stylized feature that is hard to match with a theoretical model. Our model gives rise to a set of testable predictions for which we find strong support in the data: Higher policy uncertainty leads to a significant decline in yield levels and increases bond yield volatilities. Moreover, policy uncertainty predicts future short rates and has an ambiguous effect on term premia. Finally, short (long) maturity bond risk premia respond negatively (positively) to increases in policy uncertainty.

To explore the rationality and competitiveness of the mutual fund industry, we analyze the alpha of active and index mutual funds from a global sample of more than 60,000 equity and fixed income funds and test the null hypothesis that alphas to investors are zero. We distinguish between institutional and retail investors since there are significant differences in management fees, economies of scale, and information asymmetries between these two groups. Using a new robust statistical test, we cannot reject our null hypothesis for the majority of investment categories. We find that the average active fund has less exposure to traditional risk factors, but higher sensitivity to alternative risk premia. Fund persistence and the impact of size and fees add further support to our conclusion that the mutual fund industry is highly competitive, except for US domestic funds. This set of funds is excessively overfunded compared with other fund categories.

Despite the enormous growth of the asset management industry during the past decades, little is known about the asset pricing implications of investment intermediaries. Standard models of investment theory neither address the distinction between individual and institutional investors nor the potential implications of direct investing and delegated investing. In a model with endogenous delegation, the authors find that delegation leads to a more informative price system and lower equity premia. In the presence of relative return objectives, stocks exhibiting high correlations with the benchmark have significantly lower returns than stocks with low correlations. The authors' empirical results support the model's predictions.

To simultaneously account for the properties of interest-rate term structure and foreign exchange rates within one arbitrage-free framework, we propose a class of multi-currency quadratic models (MCQM) with an (m + n) factor structure in the pricing kernel of each economy. The m factors model the term structure of interest rates. The n factors capture the portion of the exchange rate movement that is independent of the term structure. Our modeling framework represents the first in the literature that not only explicitly allows independent currency movement, but also guarantees internal consistency across all economies without imposing any artificial constraints on the exchange rate dynamics. We estimate a series of multi-currency quadratic models using U.S. and Japanese LIBOR and swap rates and the exchange rate between the two economies. Estimation shows that independent currency factors are essential in releasing the tension between the currency movement and the term structure of interest rates.

We consider the design and estimation of quadratic term structure models. We start with a list of stylized facts on interest rates and interest rate derivatives, classified into three layers: (1) general statistical properties, (2) forecasting relations, and (3) conditional dynamics. We then investigate the implications of each layer of property on model design and strive to establish a mapping between evidence and model structures. We calibrate a two-factor model that approximates these three layers of properties well, and show that a flexible specification for the market price of risk is important in capturing the stylized evidence in forecasting relations while factor interactions are indispensable in generating the hump-shaped dynamics of bond yields.