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Capital Supply Uncertainty, Cash Holdings, and Investment

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(2), 391-445
We develop a dynamic model of investment, financing, and cash management decisions in which investment is lumpy and firms face capital supply uncertainty. We characterize optimal policies explicitly, demonstrate that smooth-pasting conditions may not guarantee optimality, and show that firms may not follow standard single barrier policies. In the model, firms with high investment costs differ in their behaviors from firms with low investment costs, financing policy does not follow a strict pecking order, and the optimal payout policy may feature several regions with both incremental and lumpy dividend payments.

Machine Learning and the Implementable Efficient Frontier

Review of Financial Studies 2026 open access
We propose that investment strategies should be evaluated based on their net-of-trading-cost return for each level of risk, which we term the “implementable efficient frontier.” While numerous studies use machine learning return forecasts to generate portfolios, their agnosticism toward trading costs leads to excessive reliance on fleeting small-scale characteristics, resulting in poor net returns. We develop a framework that produces a superior frontier by integrating trading-cost-aware portfolio optimization with machine learning. The superior net-of-cost performance is achieved by learning directly about portfolio weights using an economic objective. Further, our model gives rise to a new measure of “economic feature importance.”

Illiquidity and Higher Cumulants

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(5), 2131-2173 open access
We characterize the unique equilibrium in an economy populated by strategic CARA investors who trade multiple risky assets with arbitrarily distributed payoffs. We use our explicit solution to study the joint behavior of illiquidity of option contracts. Option bid-ask spreads are proportional to risk aversion and risk-neutral variances of option payoffs. Spreads may decrease in risk aversion, physical variance, open interest, and increase after earnings announcements in a result contrary to conventional wisdom. All these predictions are confirmed empirically using a large panel data set of U.S. stock options.

An Intermediation-Based Model of Exchange Rates

Review of Financial Studies 2025 38(8), 2386-2433
We develop a continuous-time general equilibrium model with intermediaries at the heart of international financial markets. Global intermediaries bargain with households and extract rents from providing access to foreign claims. By tilting state prices, intermediaries’ market power breaks monetary neutrality and makes international risk-sharing inefficient. Despite having zero net positions, markups charged by intermediaries significantly distort international asset prices, affecting exchange rate dynamics and their response to shocks. Our model can reproduce patterns consistent with several well-known exchange rate puzzles, such as deviations from uncovered and covered interest parity. All equilibrium quantities are derived in closed form, allowing us to pin down the underlying economic mechanisms explicitly.

Capital Supply Uncertainty, Cash Holdings, and Investment

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(2), 391-445 open access
We develop a dynamic model of investment, financing, and cash management decisions in which investment is lumpy and firms face capital supply uncertainty. We characterize optimal policies explicitly, demonstrate that smooth-pasting conditions may not guarantee optimality, and show that firms may not follow standard single barrier policies. In the model, firms with high investment costs differ in their behaviors from firms with low investment costs, financing policy does not follow a strict pecking order, and the optimal payout policy may feature several regions with both incremental and lumpy dividend payments.