Prior research indicates that analysts' forecasts of earnings tend to be optimistic. Analysts' optimism may be attributed to experience, cognitive information search strategies, motivational incentives or some combination thereof. In this study, we conduct an experiment that uses a computerized eye-movement retinal imaging system to capture the cognitive search strategy of 60 professional financial analysts. We find that, within the experiment, more accurate analysts employ a directive information search strategy, whereas less accurate analysts employ a sequential search strategy. Experimental results also indicate that motivational incentives intensify the analysts' tendency to provide optimistic earnings forecasts. We also conduct an examination of the analysts' predictive accuracy outside the experimental setting. We find a significant relation between historical accuracy and the analysts' cognitive search strategy observed in the experiment. Post-experiment survey results provide insight into the linkage between specific accounting information used by the analysts and the accuracy of their forecasts.

Prior research indicates that greater transparency in reporting formats facilitates the detection of earnings management. The current study hypothesizes and demonstrates that greater transparency in comprehensive income reporting also reduces the likelihood that managers will engage in earnings management in the area of increased transparency. In our experiment, 62 financial executives and chief executive officers decide which available-for-sale security to sell from a portfolio. We manipulate the transparency of comprehensive income reporting and the relationship of projected earnings to the consensus forecast in a 2×2 between-subjects design. When projected earnings are below (above) the consensus forecast, participants sell securities that increase (decrease) earnings. However, the rarely used, more transparent format for reporting comprehensive income significantly reduces both income-increasing and income-decreasing earnings management. Participants in the less transparent setting indicate that earnings management attempts will not be obvious to readers, will improve stock prices, and have no effect on management's reputation for reporting integrity. Conversely, respondents in the more transparent condition suggest that earnings management will be obvious to readers, harmful to stock prices, and damaging to reporting reputation. Results of this study suggest that more transparent reporting requirements will reduce earnings management in the area of increased transparency or change the focus of earnings management to less visible methods.

Les études précédentes indiquent que les analystes n’ajustent pas totalement leurs évaluations en fonction du biais général à la baisse des annonces de résultats prévisionnels faites par les directions d’entreprises. Les auteurs rapportent les résultats de deux expériences visant à déterminer comment la feuille de route des entreprises en ce qui a trait à la publication de résultats prévisionnels et les enjeux motivant les analystes expliquent de concert la mesure dans laquelle ces derniers ajustent leurs évaluations en fonction du biais des annonces de résultats prévisionnels. Ces résultats d’expérience semblent indiquer que les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de l’exactitude ajustent leurs évaluations selon la feuille de route de la direction en ce qui a trait à la publication de résultats prévisionnels biaisés à la baisse lorsque le biais est relativement modeste (un cent), mais que les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de leur relation avec la direction s’en abstiennent. Au surplus, la différence dans l’ajustement est plus importante lorsque la feuille de route de l’entreprise en matière de biais est irrégulière que lorsqu’elle est régulière. Aussi, lorsque le biais des annonces de résultats prévisionnels est plus important que moins (deux cents par rapport à un cent), les analystes pour qui l’enjeu est celui de la relation avec la direction procèdent à un ajustement partiel, paraissant ainsi rechercher un équilibre entre exactitude et volonté de plaire à la direction. Ces constatations ont des répercussions pour les investisseurs, les autorités de réglementation et l’interprétation des études précédentes.

This study examines how the form of management's earnings guidance (point, narrow range, wide range) affects analysts' earnings forecasts. Results from two experiments demonstrate that: (1) guidance form has no effect on analysts' forecasts made immediately after the guidance; and (2) after the actual earnings announcement, guidance form and the relationship of the earnings guidance to actual earnings (guidance error) interact in their effect on analysts' forecasts. After the actual earnings announcement, guidance error leads to higher (lower) analysts' forecasts for firms with downwardly (upwardly) biased guidance; this effect of guidance error is magnified by a narrow range and reduced by a wide range, compared to a point estimate. These results suggest that treating the mean of the range endpoints as equivalent to a point estimate and failing to consider effects after the release of actual earnings may paint an incomplete picture of how management guidance affects analysts and investors. It also offers useful information to managers who issue earnings guidance, and presents a challenge to the psychology literature regarding the effects of information precision on judgment and decision making.

The trend toward continuous monitoring of automated business transactions by the internal audit function is growing as organizations seek to improve internal control. In this study, we demonstrate that continuous monitoring and the time horizon over which performance-contingent incentives are based can interact, thereby yielding potential functional and dysfunctional effects on managerial decisions. Seventy-two experienced corporate managers completed a between-participants experiment that randomized monitoring frequency (periodic or continuous) and incentive horizon (short-term or long-term). We found that earnings management of real activities significantly decreased as the frequency of monitoring increased in the presence of a short-term incentive horizon—a functional effect. However, with a long-term incentive horizon, the participants’ willingness to change the current level of investment in a risky but viable project significantly dropped as the frequency of monitoring increased, even though additional investment would enhance the likelihood of the project’s eventual success—a dysfunctional effect. We also observed that more frequent monitoring significantly decreased the willingness of managers to continue with a risky but viable project regardless of incentive horizon and the effect was significantly pronounced in the presence of a short-term, relative to long-term, incentive horizon—another dysfunctional consequence. Implications of the research findings to theory and practice are discussed.