Knowledge that Transforms

Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance and gives a 33% reduction in the confidence band. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly valuable. The essential notion is the existence of a common cyclical force driving the macroeconomic variables. Model comparisons based on the use of Bayes factors favor the idea of a common cyclical component.

We employ a comprehensive linked employer-employee data set for Brazil to analyze wage determinants and compare results to Abowd, Kramarz, Margolis and Troske (2001) for French and U.S. manufacturing. While returns to human capital variables in Brazilian manufacturing exceed those of the other countries, occupation and gender differentials are similar. The worker characteristics component of individual compensation accounts for much of the greater wage inequality in Brazil, but the establishment-fixed component has scant explanatory power. Thus, firm- or industry-level factors have little scope for explaining the differences in wage inequality. Brazil's wage structure closely resembles that of France, a country with some similarity in labor-market institutions.

This paper evaluates the impact of international reserves, terms-of-trade shocks, and capital flows on the real exchange rate (REER). We observe that international reserves cushion the impact of terms-of-trade shocks on REER, and that this effect is important for developing but not for industrial countries. This buffer effect is especially significant for Asian countries, and for countries exporting natural resources. Financial depth reduces the buffer role of international reserves in developing countries. Developing countries' REERs seem to be more sensitive to changes in reserve assets; whereas industrial countries display a significant relationship between hot money and REER.

The secular rise in female labor force participation, highlighted in the recent macroe-conomics literature on growth and structural change, has been associated with the de-clining price and wider availability of home appliances. This paper uses a new and unique country dataset on the price of home appliances to test its impact on female labor supply. We assess the role of the price of appliances in raising participation by comparing it to the impact of fertility and other macroeconomic factors. A decrease in the relative price of appliances- the ratio of the price of appliances to the consumer price index- leads to a substantial and statistically significant increase in female labor force participation. The impact of the price of appliances is quantitatively of the same order of magnitude as that of fertility. This result is robust to the inclusion of additional controls, such as income per capita, government spending, and male and female unemployment rates. To assess causality, we test for exogeneity and use the lagged relative price of appliances and the food price index as instrumental variables, confirming that lower appliance prices lead to increased female participation.

We model merger waves as reallocation waves, and argue that mergers spread new technology in a way that is similar to that of the entry and exit of firms. We focus on two periods: 1890–1930, during which electricity and the internal combustion engine spread through the U.S. economy, and 1970–2000—the Information Age. As the model implies, reallocation did rise during both epochs. The model also implies that exits should lead mergers during a transition, but this seems to have happened more emphatically in the electrification epoch.

Although the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis is the primary framework for understanding household consumption and savings decisions, only a few studies have used clearly identifiable income changes to test the basic predictions of the model. The estimates produced using this empirical strategy have yet to lead to a consensus of beliefs since the results have both favored and rejected the model. This paper contributes to this literature by examining the consumption reaction to predictable increases in discretionary income following the final payment of a vehicle loan. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the results show that a 10% increase in discretionary income due to a loan repayment leads to a 2% to 3% increase in nondurable consumption. Additional analysis suggests that these findings may be explained by the presence of borrowing constraints.

Emerging markets firms often carry foreign-currency debt on their balance sheets. Following a depreciation, the expanding “peso” value of “dollar” liabilities could, via a net-worth effect, offset the expansionary competitiveness effect. To assess which effect dominates, we use accounting data (including the currency composition of liabilities) for 450+ nonfinancial firms in five Latin American countries in the 1990s. We find that firms holding more dollar debt do not invest less than their peso-indebted counterparts following a depreciation. We also show that these firms match the currency denomination of their liabilities with the exchange rate sensitivity of their profits.

This study explores the role of U.S. ethnic scientific and entrepreneurial communities for international technology transfer to their home countries. U.S. ethnic researchers are quantified through an ethnic-name database and individual patent records. International patent citations confirm knowledge diffuses through ethnic networks, and manufacturing output in foreign countries increases with an elasticity of 0.1–0.3 to stronger scientific integration with the U.S. frontier. Specifications exploiting exogenous changes in U.S. immigration quotas address reverse-causality concerns. Exercises further differentiate responses by development stages in home countries. Ethnic technology transfers are particularly strong in high-tech industries and among Chinese economies.

We investigate the impact of institutions on financial development by analyzing the financial behavior of immigrants in the United States. We find that immigrants from countries with institutions that more effectively protect private property are more likely to own stock in the United States. The effect of home-country institutions is persistent and absorbed early in life. The impact of institutions is amplified for immigrants who live in metropolitan areas with many other immigrants from the same country. These findings are robust to alternative measures of institutional effectiveness and to various methods of controlling for unobserved individual characteristics, including specifications with country fixed effects.