Knowledge that Transforms
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High temperatures and household stock market participation
Did the Banking Union reduce stress test information production? The role of negative financial stability spillovers
We examine the impact of the EU Banking Union on the information production of stress tests by exploiting the institutional shift in supervisory responsibility for significant banks to the European Central Bank (ECB) under the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). We hypothesize that a centralized authority with both supervisory and financial stability mandates may reduce the informativeness of stress tests to mitigate negative spillovers, particularly potential threats to financial stability arising from disclosure. Our findings support this hypothesis, showing that the information production from stress tests declined following the introduction of the SSM. This reduction is primarily driven by weakly performing banks. We find no support for alternative explanations such as supervisory leniency, market learning, or the absence of an acute crisis.
Cash demand at zero interest rates
Risk premia in commodity markets
Reaching for coupon and investor flows in corporate bond mutual funds
This paper examines the Reaching-for-Coupon (RFC) phenomenon in U.S. corporate bond mutual funds. We define RFC as a portfolio tilt toward higher-coupon bonds relative to peers with similar yields. Using detailed bond-level holdings data from 2002–2018, we construct a novel fund-level RFC measure and show that high-RFC funds attract larger inflows, particularly in low-interest-rate environments. Crucially, investor flows into RFC funds are less sensitive to poor performance, leading to a less concave flow–performance relationship and mitigating redemption-driven fragility. These altered flow dynamics strengthen managerial incentives to take risk. Moreover, compared to Reaching-for-Yield (RFY) funds, RFC funds provide more stable income streams and are less exposed to credit downgrades. Our results demonstrate that RFC captures a distinct channel through which income-driven investor demand shapes risk-taking and fragility in bond markets.
ETF launching decisions
Stress tests, labor demand, and the dynamic adjustment of private firms
We show that the Dodd-Frank Act stress tests worsened bank loan terms and reduced vacancy postings by 16% among private firms with prior relationships with stress-tested banks. The decline is concentrated in postings for less-educated workers, indicating a contraction in hiring along this margin. These effects are temporary. Firms respond to tighter credit by shifting toward smaller financial institutions. This adjustment increases loan sizes from both new and existing lenders, which mitigates the impact of stress tests on labor demand over time.
Predicting cryptocurrency returns with vision transformers: A look-ahead bias-free approach
Employer 401(k) matches for student debt repayment: Killing two birds with one stone?
We analyze the potential impact of the recent US reform that permits employers to match retirement plan contributions when employees repay their student loans. Our calibrated lifecycle model measures the impact of this policy on heterogeneous household financial behavior and welfare. We show that, post-reform, workers optimally reduce their own retirement plan contributions in exchange for the employer matches and repay student loans more slowly and smoothly. The reform also boosts financial wealth and annual pre-retirement consumption. Workers with high student debt relative to expected lifetime income gain the most from the reform, reflecting their greater repayment burden.