Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract Using a proprietary data set covering all foreign investors’ daily trades in the Chinese stock market from 2016 to 2019, we find that foreign order flows, facilitated by regulatory liberalization through several channels, present strong predictive power for future stock returns, implying that these order flows are likely informed. We track the source of this informativeness and find that foreign order flows significantly predict firm-level news and news-day returns, suggesting that foreign investors can effectively process local firm information. Finally, we find that regulatory reforms that generally relax investment access requirements further improve foreign investors’ predictive power.

Abstract We investigate how the government, as a customer, affects a supplier’s environmental policies. We find that government contractors have significantly lower levels of toxic pollution. Exploring the mechanisms, we show that government contractors reduce pollution by strengthening internal environmental governance and increasing investments in pollution abatement. Further analysis rules out alternative explanations related to reduced economic activities and financial constraints. Overall, our results highlight the government’s important role in disciplining corporate environmental misbehavior.

Abstract The identification of disaster risk has remained a significant challenge due to the rarity of macroeconomic disasters. We show that the interbank market can help characterize the time variation in disaster risk. We propose a risk-based model in which macroeconomic disasters are likely to coincide with interbank market failure. Using interbank rates and their options, we estimate our model via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and filter the short-run and long-run components of disaster risk. Our estimation results are independent of the stock market and serve as an external validity test of rare disaster models, which are typically calibrated to match stock moments.

Abstract This study examines the impact of recreational marijuana laws (RMLs) on firm-level employment using an imputation-based difference-in-differences (DiD) approach across U.S. states. RMLs significantly reduce employment, particularly among firms with high-skilled labor, strong union presence, permissive corporate cultures, and in states with greater dispensary density. Alternative explanations—including economic crises, COVID-19, fiscal changes, labor regulations, and related policies such as smoking bans and right-to-work (RTW) laws—are systematically ruled out through a series of placebo and robustness tests. RMLs also reduce investment, sales growth, and innovation, suggesting that legalization introduces labor-related frictions with broad implications for firm performance and long-term dynamism.

Abstract Stablecoins are a new form of private money. They are fragile but largely trade at par. How? We present a model and empirical work to examine a novel source of demand for stablecoins. Stablecoin owners are indirectly compensated for run risk by lending their coins to crypto speculators. The stablecoin can then support its $1 peg, but this arrangement links crypto speculation to traditional financial markets where stablecoins invest their reserves.

ABSTRACT This paper examines the effect of the All‐Star award on the performance of Chinese financial analysts. Leveraging unique voting data from 2007 to 2016 and a regression discontinuity design (RDD), we find that the All‐Star award significantly enhances recipients' fundamental analysis. Awarded analysts issue more accurate earnings forecasts, and their stock recommendations convey greater information content for firms with higher information asymmetry. RDD results also indicate that award recipients gain increased resources and greater flexibility in reallocating time and effort. Post award, analysts concentrate on fewer industries, cover more firms within each industry, issue forecasts more frequently, expand their teams, and conduct more site visits. Surveys of analysts and institutional investors corroborate these findings, highlighting increases in site visits and roadshows following the award. Overall, the results suggest that the All‐Star award boosts analyst performance by fostering more concentrated coverage and improving access to both internal and external resources.

Abstract In this study, we examine how achievement‐related tendencies are expressed in the professional auditing context, particularly through the interplay between the CEO and the audit partner. We use the facial width‐to‐height ratio (fWHR), a stable morphological trait widely applied in prior research, as a proxy for achievement drive. Using a sample of US audit partners from 2016 to 2019, we find that higher achievement drive is associated with enhanced audit quality, evidenced by fewer restatements and lower abnormal accruals. Auditors with higher achievement drive are also more likely to become industry experts, attain leadership positions, and achieve partnership status more quickly. Importantly, we find that high‐achievement‐drive audit partners are more inclined to assert dominance in negotiations, particularly when working with equally driven CEOs, leading to improved audit quality. Overall, our findings suggest that, when activated in auditing contexts, achievement‐oriented tendencies, as proxied by fWHR, are linked to higher audit quality.

ABSTRACT Exploiting the staggered rollout of third‐generation (3G) mobile broadband networks across 40 countries between 1999 and 2012, we examine how technological progress affects capital markets. We find that the introduction of 3G networks is followed by a reduction in bid‐ask spreads and an increase in price informativeness. These effects are more pronounced among firms with lower institutional ownership, indicating that information access through mobile broadband networks disproportionally benefits retail investors. We further show that these effects are concentrated in countries with well‐functioning markets, as characterized by transparent accounting information, broad investor participation, and strong legal protections for investors. Taken together, our findings suggest that mobile broadband connectivity reduces information frictions and improves price informativeness. They further highlight the institutional conditions under which these benefits materialize.

ABSTRACT During the COVID‐19 pandemic, states imposed restrictions intended to slow the spread of the virus. We investigate whether states' reliance on consumption tax revenue, relative to other tax revenue sources, is associated with the duration of COVID‐19 mobility restrictions. We find that states that are more dependent on consumption taxes experienced shorter durations of stay‐at‐home orders, restaurant closures, and bar closures. We conduct a series of analyses to mitigate concerns that state‐level political preferences and biases may be influencing our findings. Our findings suggest that anticipated shortfalls in consumption tax revenue may have shaped public health responses, consistent with tax system structures relating, unintentionally, to crisis management decisions.

ABSTRACT We investigate investors' voluntary disclosure decisions under uncertainty about their information endowment. In our model, an investor may receive initial evidence about a target firm. Conditional on learning the initial evidence, the investor may receive additional evidence that helps them interpret the initial evidence. The investor takes a position in the firm's stock, then voluntarily discloses some or all of their findings, and finally closes their position after the disclosure. We present two main findings. First, the investor will always disclose the initial evidence, even though the market is uncertain about whether the investor possesses such evidence. Second, the investor's disclosure strategy of the additional evidence increases stock price volatility: they disclose extreme news and withhold moderate news. Due to the withholding of the additional evidence, misleading disclosure arises as an equilibrium outcome, where the investor's report decreases (increases) price despite their news being good (bad). These results remain robust when considering the target firm's endogenous response to the investor's report.