Knowledge that Transforms

Theory suggests that vertical disintegration should be greater in areas where industries localize. This paper provides some evidence that this implication is true for the U.S. manufacturing sector. Purchased inputs as a percent of the value of output is used as a measure of vertical disintegration. To measure the localization of industry, for each manufacturing plant the amount of employment in neighboring plants in the same industry is determined.

We examine the effect of buyer merger on bilateral negotiations between a supplier and n buyers. Merger may have bargaining effects in addition to the usual efficiency effects. The effect of merger on the buyers' bargaining position depends on the curvature of the supplier's gross surplus function: merger enhances (worsens) the buyers' bargaining position if the function is concave (convex). Based on a panel of advertising revenue in the cable television industry, our estimates indicate that the gross surplus function for suppliers of program services is convex. This result suggests that cable operators integrate horizontally to realize efficiency gains rather than to enhance their bargaining position vis-a-vis program suppliers.

We provide a framework for evaluating and improving multivariate density forecasts. Among other things, the multivariate framework lets us evaluate the adequacy of density forecasts involving cross-variable interactions, such as time-varying conditional correlations. We also provide conditions under which a technique of density forecast “calibration” can be used to improve deficient density forecasts, and we show how the calibration method can be used to generate good density forecasts from econometric models, even when the conditional density is unknown. Finally, motivated by recent advances in financial risk management, we provide a detailed application to multivariate high-frequency exchange rate density forecasts.

A “grid” bootstrap method is proposed for confidence-interval construction, which has improved performance over conventional bootstrap methods when the sampling distribution depends upon the parameter of interest. The basic idea is to calculate the bootstrap distribution over a grid of values of the parameter of interest and form the confidence interval by the no-rejection principle. Our primary motivation is given by autoregressive models, where it is known that conventional bootstrap methods fail to provide correct first-order asymptotic coverage when an autoregressive root is close to unity. In contrast, the grid bootstrap is first-order correct globally in the parameter space. Simulation results verify these insights, suggesting that the grid bootstrap provides an important improvement over conventional methods. Gauss code that calculates the grid bootstrap intervals-and replicates the empirical work reported in this paper'is available from the author's Web page at www.ssc.wisc.edu˜bhansen

This paper examines the relationship between consumption smoothing and excess female mortality, by asking if favorable rainfall shocks in childhood increase the survival probabilities of girls to a greater extent than they increase boys' survival probabilities for a sample of rural Indian children. In order to avert the issue of selection bias due to underreporting of births of girls, a methodology is employed that does not require data on births by gender. The results indicate that favorable rainfall shocks increase the ratio of the probability that a girl survives to the probability that a boy survives.

This paper analyzes the link between rising city crime rates and urban flight. Each additional reported crime is associated with a roughly one-person decline in city population. Almost all of the crime-related population decline is attributable to increased out-migration rather than a decrease in new arrivals. Households that leave the city because of crime are much more likely to remain within the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) than those that leave the city for other reasons. Migration decisions of highly educated households and those with children are particularly responsive to changes in crime. Causality appears to run from rising crime rates to city depopulation.

While research has demonstrated that farm households in developing economies are able to protect consumption from idiosyncratic crop shocks, little evidence shows how this is achieved. This paper examines the extent to which labor markets allow households to shift labor from farm to off-farm employment, and the extent to which such a shift explains the observed lack of correlation between consumption and idiosyncratic crop shocks. The empirical analysis uses a novel measure of the idiosyncratic crop income shock which utilizes information on start-of-season cropping choices to more accurately estimate household expectations of weather.

The standard wage decomposition methodology produces arbitrary results when attempting to estimate the separate contributions of sets of dummy variables to the unexplained portion of the wage decomposition: the estimates are not invariant with respect to the choice of reference groups. However, the estimated separate contributions of sets of dummy variables to the explained portion and the overall decomposition are shown not to be dependent upon the choice of left-out reference groups. A similar identification problem applies to continuous variables, although this may not be as likely to cause problems in practice.

This study presents estimates of the effect of parental income on children's cognitive, social, and emotional development. The effect of current income is small, especially when income is treated as endogenous. The effect of “permanent” income is substantially larger, but relatively small when compared to the magnitude of recent policy-induced changes in income. Family background characteristics play a more important role than income in determining child outcomes. Policies that affect family income will have little direct impact on child development unless they result in very large and permanent changes in income.

We hope to answer three questions: Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth towards stabilization? If so, when? What is the nature of this structural break?We employ a Bayesian approach to identify a structural break at an unknown changepoint in a Markov-switching model of the business cycle. Empirical results suggest a break in GDP growth toward stabilization, with the posterior mode of the break date at 1984:1. Furthermore, we find a narrowing gap between growth rates during recessions and booms that is at least as important as any decline in the volatility of shocks.