Knowledge that Transforms

Skidelsky's three-volume biography of Keynes, of which this is the third, gives us Keynes, entire. The meat of the biography lies in the well-constructed narrative and in the magnificent portraits of Keynes and his age. Robert Skidelsky has given us a superb intellectual biography.

Herbst argues that Africa is plagued by “state failure” to provide certain public goods in society, such as law and order, defense, contract enforcement, and infrastructure. Herbst has provided a bold, historically informed theoretical analysis, essential reading for economists interested in comparative institutions and development.

Germany's financial system differs in many respects from those of the United States or Britain. One key difference is the banking system, which plays a relatively greater role in Germany. Germany has long had universal banks, institutions that provide a full range of financial services. Some economic historians attribute Germany's economic success, in part, to these institutions. In the United States arguments for the deregulation of banking often stress the supposed advantages of German-style universal banks. A long tradition in economic history focuses on close connections between large banks and industrial firms that allegedly allowed the banks to play an unusual role in industrial finance. This view of the German banking system misses some important parts of the story, including the relatively late development of the current institutions and the important role of other banking institutions such as savings banks and credit cooperatives. This paper traces the development of the German banking system in the century prior to World War I, stressing those aspects of the history that inform both discussions in the economics of information and banking, and debates about the deregulation of banking today.

When unemployed workers are available, why don't firms cut wages until the excess supply is eliminated? In his book, Why Wages Don't Fall During a Recession, Truman F. Bewley concludes, based on interviews with managers and labor leaders, that the most important factor inhibiting wage cuts is the psychological factor of morale. Bewley's field research has made an outstanding contribution to our knowledge of labor markets, by providing a close-up view of exactly what happens from the vantage point of the participants.

William Easterly's superb book draws on what we have learned from almost two decades of cross-country growth comparisons, providing a critical synthesis of the current state of empirical knowledge on growth. The author emphasizes policy and institution-driven incentives for growth, and also critically surveys evidence for more traditional sources of growth such as factor accumulation. Another contribution of the book is an accessible and detailed description of the vicious cycle of adjustment loans directed by the World Bank and IMF at countries that squander these resources in current consumption rather than investment, leading to stagnant growth, debt crises, debt relief and further adjustment loans.

Public opinion surveys uniformly show low support for medical-care systems in developed countries. The longstanding conflict between equal access to care and efficient service provision partly explains this dissatisfaction. But the trade-off is particularly acute in medical care, as new technologies developed over time have increased the cost of care and made the equity commitment even more expensive. Countries first dealt with rising costs by maintaining equal access and restricting total spending. Efficiency suffered, however. As a result, many countries are considering a move away from spending controls and toward incentive-based medical-care reform.

This paper reviews recent research on the determinants of educational outcomes, and the impact of those outcomes on other socioeconomic phenomena. It addresses three questions: 1) What school policies are most cost-effective in producing students with particular cognitive skills, such as literacy and numeracy? 2) What is the relationship between schooling, particularly cognitive skills acquired in school, and labor productivity? 3) What impact does schooling, especially cognitive skills, have on other socioeconomic outcomes? While recent research has made some progress, these are difficult questions and much more work is needed. The paper provides suggestions for future research on these questions.

Since 1947, hyperinflations (by Cagan’s definition) in market economies have been rare. Much more common have been longer inflationary processes with inflation rates above 100 percent per annum. Based on a sample of 133 countries, and using the 100 percent threshold as the basis for a definition of very high inflation episodes, this paper examines the main characteristics of such inflations. Among other things, we find that (i) close to 20 percent of countries have experienced inflation above 100 percent per annum; (ii) higher inflation tends to be more unstable; (iii) in high-inflation countries, the relationship between the fiscal balance and seigniorage is strong both in the short and longrun’s; (iv) inflation inertia decreases as average inflation rises; (v) high-inflation is associated with poor macroeconomic performance; and (vi) stabilizations from high inflation that rely on the exchange rate as the nominal anchor are expansionary.

McMillan and three anonymous referees for helpful comments, and to the National Institutes on Public opinion surveys uniformly show low support for medical care systems in developed countries. The longstanding conflict between equal access to care and efficient service provision partly explains this dissatisfaction. But the tradeoff is particularly acute in medical care, as new technologies developed over time have increased the cost of care and made the equity commitment even more expensive. Countries first dealt with rising costs by maintaining equal access and restricting total spending. Efficiency suffered, however. As a result, many countries are considering a move away from spending controls and towards incentive-based medical care reform.