Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract The effect of the full treatment is a primary parameter of interest in policy evaluation, while often the effect of a subset of treatment is estimated. We partially identify the local average treatment effect of receiving full treatment (LAFTE) using an instrumental variable that may induce individuals into subsets of treatment (partial compliers). We show that partial compliers violate the standard exclusion restriction, necessary conditions on the absence of partial compliers are testable, and partial identification holds under a double exclusion restriction. We identify partial compliers in four applications and estimate informative bounds on the LAFTE in three of them.

Abstract Libraries deliver the majority of US book consumption, and library costs are kept low by the first sale doctrine's guarantee that libraries can lend print books without additional compensation to publishers. However, publishers' decisions to restrict ebook access may threaten libraries. We measure impacts of holdings on circulation; and library holdings choices suggest that library managers value instances of ebook circulation more than print. We use a structural model of patron demand and library holdings to show that more restrictive print book terms would have ten times the negative patron welfare impact of an equivalent restriction on ebooks.

Abstract In 1966, Southern hospitals were barred from participating in Medicare unless they discontinued their longstanding practice of racial segregation. Using data from five Deep South states and exploiting county-level variation in Medicare certification dates, we find that gaining access to an ostensibly integrated hospital had no effect on Black postneonatal mortality. Similarly, there is little evidence that the campaign contributed to the trend towards in-hospital births among Southern Black mothers. These results are consistent with descriptions of the hospital desegregation campaign as producing only cosmetic changes and illustrate the limits of anti-discrimination policies imposed upon reluctant actors.

Current Editorial Board:Treb Allen, Dartmouth CollegePierre Azoulay, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyWill Dobbie (Co-Chair), Harvard UniversityRaymond Fisman (Co-Chair), Boston UniversityBenjamin R. Handel, University of California, BerkeleyPeter Hull, Brown UniversityBrian A. Jacob, University of MichiganScott Kominers, Harvard UniversityTavneet Suri, Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyStephen Terry, University of MichiganRecently Retired from the Editorial Board:Olivier Coibion, University of Texas, AustinDaniel Xu, Duke UniversityTable 1—Manuscripts Submitted and PublishedThis table shows the trends in papers submitted and published over the past five years. The journal saw increased growth in submissions of papers from 2019 to 2020. Submission numbers remained steady from 2020 to 2021, declined by 10% in 2022, and then remained steady from 2022 to 2023. The number of published papers increased by 25 in 2022 and an additional 17 papers in 2023 due to the publication of larger issues.Table 2—Status of Manuscripts by Year of Submission, 2019–2023This table shows the status of manuscripts submitted over the past five years. The number of papers summarily rejected has remained steady, ranging from 54% to 61% of papers submitted. The percent of papers sent out for review but ultimately rejected has also remained steady, ranging from 30% to 35% of papers. Acceptance rates range from 2% to 11% of papers submitted. Papers submitted in 2023 have not had enough time to reflect the acceptance rate.Table 3—Decision Time for Manuscripts Sent to Referees for ReviewThis table reports the decision time for manuscripts sent to referees for review over the past five years. The average decision time for papers that were sent to referees has remained steady, ranging from 82 to 95 days.Table 4—Distribution of First Decision Times, by Submission YearThis table includes all first-round paper submissions and shows the distribution of decision times in monthly increments for the past five years. This table also reflects the improvement in the journal's decision turnaround times. In 2023, 82% of manuscripts received a decision within three months and 99% within six months.Table 5—Subject Matter of Published Manuscripts, 2023This table shows the distribution of subject matter of papers published in 2023. These papers covered a variety of subjects, but the most common published topics were microeconomics; mathematical and quantitative methods; and health, education, and welfare. Table 1.Manuscripts Submitted and Published, 2019–2023YearSubmittedPublished20191,3306620201,6666520211,6746520221,4809020231,445107

Abstract Positive assortative matching increases both the wages of more productive workers and wage dispersion. We study the effect of immigration on positive assortative matching using French employer-employee data from 1995 to 2005. We find that increases in the share of immigrants, driven by historical networks across local labor markets, generated stronger positive assortative matching between workers and firms. We present evidence suggesting that this effect was associated to higher wages for more productive workers and that the findings are consistent with increased workers' screening by firms.

Abstract We examine how changes in the salience of workplace risk affect police behavior and public safety. Specifically, we investigate cases of police officer deaths while on duty. Officers respond to a peer death by decreasing arrest activity for one to two months, consistent with heightened fear. Reductions are largest for low-level arrests and are more pronounced in smaller cities. Crime does not increase on average during this period, nor do we observe crime spikes in cities with larger or longer arrest declines. While shocks to perceived fatality risk generate substantial enforcement responses, officer fear is unlikely to harm public safety.

Abstract In this paper, we propose a statistical model to characterize the null hypothesis of the random product size distribution for multi-product exporters. It serves as a benchmark to test the empirical facts and model predictions. We ask which stylized facts that characterize multi-product exporters and motivate such theories as core competencies, productivity being a driver of both scope and scale, and economies of scope among others, are spurious, and which are informative. The benchmark model also provides alternative moments to test the validity of these theories.

Abstract We study an agency model in which the principal knows the agent-optimal actions in response to K “known” contracts but is unaware of other actions available or their costs, and seeks a contract to maximize worst-case profits. The optimal contract is a mixture of the known contracts and output. Moreover, when K = 1, the single known contract maximizes the principal's profit guarantee, whereas with two known contracts, the optimal mixture puts positive weight on one of the known contracts. Our methodology is straightforward to implement, a point that we demonstrate using data from an experimental study of different incentive schemes.

Abstract Researchers using instrumental variables to investigate ordered treatments often recode treatment into an indicator for any exposure. We investigate this estimand under the assumption that the instruments shift compliers from no treatment to some but not from some treatment to more. We show that when there are extensive margin compliers only (EMCO) this estimand captures a weighted average of treatment effects that can be partially unbundled into each complier group's potential outcome means. We also establish an equivalence between EMCO and a two-factor selection model and apply our results to study treatment heterogeneity in the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment.

Abstract We report the results of a cost-effective intervention to improve workers' performance in small cassava processing firms in Ghana. We train workers to track their daily output and then randomly assign a sub-sample to set daily production goals. Achieving or missing a goal does not carry monetary consequences. Goal setting increases workers' output by 16%, their productivity by 8% and the average product of labor in firms by 13%. Goal setting is particularly effective for piece-rate workers, increasing their output by 32% and productivity by 24%. While not conclusive, evidence suggests that goals serve as a self-regulation device.