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The (Mis)Behaviour of the Aggregate Price Level

Review of Economic Studies 1993 60(4), 889-902
This paper investigates the response of the price level to random monetary shocks through a model of the fixed cost of changing a nominal price. It shows that in an inflationary environment, an expansionary monetary shock is accommodated faster than a contractionary monetary shock. Furthermore, when the average rate of monetary expansion increases, the lag in response to a positive shock decreases. The study also proves that the relationship between the expected rate of inflation and the variance of real prices is positive only above a critical level of expected inflation.

Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1993 108(4), 869-903
Because unanticipated monetary expansion leads to real exchange rate depreciation, and because the harms of real depreciation are greater in more open economies, the benefits of unanticipated expansion are decreasing in the degree of openness. Models in which the absence of precommitment in monetary policy leads to excessive inflation therefore predict lower average inflation in more open economies. This paper tests this prediction using cross-country data. The data show a strong and robust negative link between openness and inflation.

The Carnegie Conjecture: Some Empirical Evidence

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1993 108(2), 413-435
This paper examines tax-return-generated data on the labor force behavior of people before and after they receive inheritances. The results are consistent with Andrew Carnegie's century-old assertion that large inheritances decrease a person's labor force participation. For example, a single person who receives an inheritance of about $150,000 is roughly four times more likely to leave the labor force than a person with an inheritance below $25,000. Additional, albeit weaker, evidence suggests that large inheritances depress labor supply, even when participation is unaltered. Warren Kendall … heir to an insurance company fortune … says he's worth about $5 million and has an income of “about, oh, $300 and some thousand a year.” [H]e has never held a job, or wanted to. Going down to sea in cruise ships is his full-time pursuit. He estimates that he has taken about 250 cruises over the past couple of decades, spending at least 50 percent to 70 percent of the year afloat [Morgenthaler, 1991, p. Al].

Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1993 108(3), 653-679
How does movement toward freer trade affect income disparity among countries? This paper attempts to shed some light on the issue by examining episodes of major postwar trade hberalization within specified groups of countries. The findings suggest a strong link between the timing of trade reform and income convergence among countries.

A Test of the Theory of Optimal Taxation for the United States, 1869-1989

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1993 75(4), 712
A popular theory of optimal tax policies suggests that tax rates should follow a random walk. This paper extends the existing empirical literature in three ways. First, the impact on the marginal utility of consumption when the government chooses a tax plan to smooth the distorting impact of taxes is considered. Second, exogenous changes in the real rate of interest are incorporated into the government's optimal tax plan. Finally, the tax elasticity of output is not constant over time. Allowing for these changes, there is evidence that the government discounts the future, attempts to smooth the distorting impact of taxes on the marginal utility of consumption, and that the tax elasticity of output moves predictably during wars.