ABSTRACT Our study uses a multinomial logit model to analyze the concurrent termination experience of adjustable‐rate and fixed‐rate mortgages. A new set of ARM‐specific interactive determinants expands the conventional FRM specification to isolate the unique termination behavior of ARMs. We find that expected rate adjustments and large lifetime caps are positively related to ARM termination probabilities while long adjustment frequencies are inversely related. Caps, both periodic and lifetime, have a secondary, inverse effect on termination probabilities when interest‐rate movements exceed cap limits. The model also shows that interest‐rate expectations affect FRM terminations more strongly than ARM terminations.

The authors' study uses a multinomial logit model to analyze the concurrent termination experience of adjustable-rate and fixed-rate mortgages. A new set of adjustable-rate-mortgage-specific interactive determinants expands the conventional fixed-rate-mortgage specification to isolate the unique termination behavior of adjustable-rate mortgages. The authors find that expected rate adjustments and large lifetime caps are positively related to adjustable-rate-mortgage termination probabilities, while long adjustment frequencies are inversely related. Caps, both periodic and lifetime, have a secondary, inverse effect on termination probabilities when interest-rate movements exceed cap limits. The model also shows that interest-rate expectations affect fixed-rate-mortgage terminations more strongly than adjustable-rate-mortgage terminations.