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Heterogeneous Paths of Industrialization

Review of Economic Studies 2024 91(3), 1746-1774
Abstract Industrialization experiences differ substantially across countries. We use a benchmark model of structural change to shed light on the sources of this heterogeneity and, in particular, the phenomenon of premature deindustrialization. Our analysis leads to three key findings. First, benchmark models of structural change robustly generate hump-shaped patterns for the evolution of the industrial sector. Second, heterogeneous patterns of catch-up in sectoral productivities across countries can generate variation in industrialization experiences similar to those found in the data, including premature deindustrialization. Third, differences in the rate of agricultural productivity growth across economies can account for the majority of the variation in peak industrial employment shares.

Financing firms in hibernation during the COVID-19 pandemic

Journal of Financial Stability 2021 53, 100837 open access
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic halted economic activity worldwide, hurting firms and pushing many of them toward bankruptcy. This paper discusses four central issues that have emerged in the academic and policy debates related to firm financing during the downturn. First, the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic is radically different from past crises, with important consequences for optimal policy responses. Second, it is important to preserve firms’ relationships with key stakeholders (e.g., workers, suppliers, customers, and creditors) to avoid inefficient bankruptcies and long-term detrimental economic effects. Third, firms can benefit from “hibernation,” incurring the minimum bare expenses necessary to withstand the pandemic while using credit to remain alive until the crisis subdues. Fourth, the existing legal and regulatory infrastructure is ill-equipped to deal with an exogenous systemic shock like a pandemic. Financial sector policies can help channel credit to firms, but they are hard to implement and entail different trade-offs.

The internal labor markets of business groups

Journal of Corporate Finance 2021 69, 102017
This paper provides micro evidence of labor mobility inside business groups. We show that worker flows between firms in the same group are stronger than with unaffiliated firms. Moreover, the reallocation of top workers between group firms is more sensitive to international shocks. Top workers that move within the group in response to shocks reach higher positions and earn higher wages. We find suggestive evidence that productivity increases when firms receive same-group top workers. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that, in response to changing opportunities, joint ownership eases the redeployment of workers endowed with general management skills.