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When do CDS spreads lead? Rating events, private entities, and firm-specific information flows

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 130(3), 556-578
We find that credit default swap (CDS) spreads contribute significantly to price discovery in financial markets when firm-specific credit information is prominent. Using 3,470 S&P rating notch and watch changes for US public and private entities from 2001–2013, we show that CDS prices contain unique firm credit risk information that is not captured by the prices of other related securities such as stocks and bonds of the same firm. Credit information unidirectionally flows from CDS to bonds, particularly for private entities whose stocks are not concurrently trading in markets. We further find that CDS returns significantly predict stock returns, particularly their idiosyncratic components.

Why are commercial loan rates so sticky? The effect of private information on loan spreads

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 143(2), 959-972
Past studies find that commercial loan spreads are “sticky” in the sense that they do not fully respond to changes in open market rates or observable firm credit risk characteristics. In this paper, we provide evidence that the appearance of stickiness arises, in part, because the intensity of bank screening varies inversely with changes in both observable firm credit risk characteristics and credit market conditions. Our analysis demonstrates that stickiness in loan spreads does not necessarily indicate loan mispricing or misallocation of credit.