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How does competition affect retail banking? Quasi-experimental evidence from bank mergers

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 154, 103797 open access
This paper studies bank antitrust rules which discontinuously shift bank mergers' competitive impact. The likelihood of mandatory divestiture rises sharply for mergers in markets above a threshold level of concentration, leading to an increase in the number of banks in these markets. Consistent with greater competition, intervention leads to higher deposit rates. Mortgage originations rise by 11%, from both refinancing and purchases. However, small business loan quantities do not change. The effects of intervention do not dissipate over time, and nonbank lenders respond similarly to banks. Overall, antitrust rules can increase bank competition, but relationships protect banks from competitors.

Household mobility and mortgage rate lock

Journal of Financial Economics 2025 164, 103973 open access
Rising interest rates can create “mortgage rate lock” for homeowners with fixed rate mortgages, who can hold onto their low rates as long as they stay in their homes but would have to take on new mortgages with higher rates if they moved. We show mobility rates fell in 2022 and 2023 for homeowners with mortgages, as market rates rose. We observe both absolute declines and declines relative to homeowners without mortgages, who are unaffected by mortgage rate lock. Mobility declines are not explained by changes in home values. Overall, our estimates imply that rising interest rates reduced mobility in 2022 and 2023 for households with mortgages by 16% and caused $20bn of deadweight loss.

Can FinTech reduce disparities in access to finance? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 146(1), 90-118
New technology promises to expand the supply of financial services to small businesses poorly served by banks. Does it succeed? We study the response of FinTech to financial services demand created by the introduction of the Paycheck Protection Program. FinTech is disproportionately used in ZIP codes with fewer bank branches, lower incomes, and more minority households, and in industries with fewer banking relationships. It is also greater in counties where the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were more severe. Substitution between FinTech and banks is economically small, implying that FinTech mostly expands, rather than redistributes, the supply of financial services.

The short- and long-run effects of remote work on U.S. housing markets

Journal of Financial Economics 2023 150(1), 166-184 open access
Remote work has increased the demand for housing and changed the demand for the location of that housing. Because housing supply is heterogeneous across space and more elastic in the long-run, the effects on rents and populations may differ over time. We use the lens of a spatial housing model with heterogeneous housing supply elasticities to identify the housing and location demand changes from 2020–2022, and show that the same shocks will have different effects in the long run. Even though rents and prices increased significantly in the short-run, we estimate that in the long-run, increased housing demand will increase rents by only 1.8 percentage points, and that changing location demand will decrease rents by 0.3 percentage points, with a more negative impact on cities in which CPI is measured and cities that were initially expensive.