This paper asks whether market fundamentals can explain the recent run-up and decline of Japanese equity values and price-earnings ratios. Accounting differences explain about half of the long-run disparity between U.S. and Japanese P/Es. For example, if Japanese firms used U.S. accounting rules, the Japanese P/E ratio would have been 32.6, not 53.7, in 1989. Accounting differences cannot, however, explain the doubling of this ratio in 1986, nor its decline in 1990. Similarly, we are unable to isolate changes in required stock returns or growth expectations that are large enough to explain recent Japanese stock price movements.

This paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of returns on stocks, bond, foreign exchange, real estate, collectibles, and precious metals. It highlights four stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, they are weakly negatively serially correlated over long horizons. Third, deviations of asset values from proxies for fundamental value have predictive power for returns. Fourth, short term interest rates are negatively correlated with excess returns on other assets. The similarity of the results across markets suggests that they may be due to inherent features of the speculative process.