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Financial distress and return: A finite mixture approach

Journal of Corporate Finance 2025 92, 102779 open access
Using finite mixture models, we find that financial distress is related to realized return negatively (positively) for one (the other) latent group. The negative (positive) relation concentrates in firms with large negative (positive) realized return; the likelihood for a firm to be in the latent group with a positive relation is negatively related to its price-to-value ratio estimate and mispricing score, both of which measure relative mispricing. The mispricing-correction component of realized return is negative (positive) for overvalued (undervalued) firms and decreases (increases) with corrected overvaluation (undervaluation). Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that mispricing—undervaluation and overvaluation—is larger for firms with higher financial distress. Evident in our findings, an overall negative relation between financial distress and realized return is driven by the negative relation between financial distress and the mispricing-correction component for overvalued firms and, therefore, it is not at odds with the risk-reward paradigm. • The relation between distress and realized return is positive (negative) for undervalued (overvalued) firms. • The negative overall relation between distress and realized return does not contradict the risk-reward paradigm. • Zhuo (June) Cheng acknowledges financial support from Hong Kong SAR Research Grants Council, China (#15506018).

Minority shareholder voting and dividend policy

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 148, 106748
We find that minority shareholders’ voting opposition to dividend proposals is associated with significantly higher cash dividend payout in the following year for stocks listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange. When minority shareholders’ voting opposition increases, the likelihood and frequency of regulatory penalties increase. The reverse happens after firms increase dividend payout. Minority shareholders’ voting opposition has a stronger positive effect on cash dividend payout when they post more messages in stock forums and when independent directors express dissenting opinions. The effect is weaker if the board chair or CEO has political connections. Minority shareholders’ voting opposition does not have significant effects on the growth rate of earnings and the level of earnings management. But we do find evidence that minority shareholder voting opposition reduces expropriation by major shareholders. The evidence supports a hypothesis that regulators use the minority shareholder voting results to screen out possible cases of shareholder oppression.

The Differential Timeliness of Stock Price in Incorporating Bad versus Good News and the Earnings-Return Asymmetry

The Accounting Review 2023 98(6), 97-124
ABSTRACT The larger association between earnings and contemporaneous returns for negative returns than for positive returns is often attributed to conditional conservatism. We reason that this asymmetry may also be driven by the lack of timeliness with which stock price incorporates bad news relative to good news. Consistent with our reasoning, we show that when stock price incorporates bad news with delay, the asymmetry can exist in the absence of conditional conservatism. This suggests the testable hypothesis that the asymmetry decreases (increases) with factors that facilitate (impede) the incorporation of bad news into stock price. Using stock liquidity to test this hypothesis, we find that the earnings-return asymmetry decreases as stock liquidity increases. Our findings support the view that variation in the earnings-return asymmetry also reflects variation in the quality of the return generation process. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G14; G40; M4; M40; M41.