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Cross‐Quarter Differences in Stock Price Responses to Earnings Announcements: Fourth‐Quarter and Seasonality Influences*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1994 11(1), 297-330
Abstract. This article examines the impact of one form of sales seasonality on the response of equity returns to earnings announcements in different quarters. We regress unexpected announcement period returns on unexpected earnings and compare the results for seasonal firms—those with sales consistently concentrated in the same quarter each year—to those of other firms. For seasonal firms, we find robust evidence of a greater regression intercept and some evidence of a greater earnings response coefficient in peak sales quarters than in nonpeak quarters. These results are consistent with a greater resolution of the uncertainty about seasonal firms' prospects in their peak sales quarters than in other quarters. Our evidence also shows that fourth‐quarter earnings announcements have smaller stock price response coefficients than do interim announcements. Some prior has found smaller fourth‐quarter earnings response coefficients for small but not large firms. We find some evidence that fourth‐quarter earnings response coefficients are smaller than interim‐quarter response coefficients for large firms as well as for small firms. This suggests that explanations for smaller fourth‐quarter earnings response coefficients need to be applicable to both large and small firms. Résumé. Les auteurs examinent, pour différents trimestres, l'incidence d'une forme de caractère saisonnier des ventes sur la réaction du rendement des actions aux déclarations de bénéfices. Ils effectuent une analyse de régression des rendements imprévus des trimestres par rapport aux bénéfices imprévus et comparent les résultats obtenus dans le cas des entreprises dont les activités sont saisonnières—c'est‐à‐dire dont les ventes sont systématiquement concentrées dans le même trimestre chaque année—aux résultats obtenus dans le cas des autres entreprises. Dans le cas des entreprises dont les activités sont saisonnières, les résultats de l'analyse démontrent vigoureusement que l'intersection de la régression est supérieure et confirment avec moins de fermeté que le coefficient de réaction aux bénéfices déclarés est supérieur pour les trimestres où le volume des ventes culmine, par rapport aux autres trimestres. Ces résultats permettent de conclure à une plus grande résorption de l'incertitude relative aux perspectives des entreprises dont les activités ont un caractère saisonnier dans les trimestres où les ventes de ces entreprises culminent que dans les autres trimestres. Les résultats de l'analyse démontrent également que les déclarations de bénéfices au quatrième trimestre donnent lieu à des coefficients plus faibles de réaction du cours des actions que les déclarations des trimestres intermédiaires. Certains travaux antérieurs ont établi que les coefficients de réaction aux déclarations de bénéfices du quatrième trimestre étaient plus faibles pour les petites entreprises que pour les grandes. L'analyse des auteurs tend ici à démontrer que les coefficients de réaction aux déclarations de bénéfices du quatrième trimestre sont plus faibles que les coefficients de réaction des trimestres intermédiaires pour les grandes entreprises aussi bien que pour les petites entreprises. Ces constatations donnent à penser que les facteurs qui expliquent les coefficients de réaction plus faibles aux déclarations de bénéfices du quatrième trimestre devraient pouvoir s'appliquer tant aux grandes qu'aux petites entreprises.

Managerial Voting Rights and Seasoned Public Equity Issues

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1994 29(3), 445
This paper examines the relation between changes in firm value associated with public equityissue announcements and management ownership, nonmanagement large block ownership, institutional ownership, information variables, and leverage. A significant negative relationis found between the ratio of announcement period abnormal returns to changes in management ownership and the level of management ownership. This result is consistent with Stulz (1988) who predicts that firm value increases at a decreasing rate as management control of voting rights increases. This finding is also consistent with improvements in alignment of interests, where such improvements diminish as management becomes entrenched. The announcement period abnormal returns appear to be unrelated to outside blockholdings (large block ownership or institutional holdings), information variables, or leverage.

Difficult Choices: Crossing the Picket Line during the 1987 National Football League Strike

Journal of Labor Economics 1994 12(1), 41-73
This study examines the difficult choice faced by members of a striking bargaining unit between withholding labor or crossing the picket line in violation of the prevailing behavioral norm. Using duration analysis, we test a model of crossing behavior using data on individual football players during the 1987 National Football League strike. A notable finding is that nonwhite players are less willing to cross the picket line if their team union representative is also nonwhite. Willingness to cross the line is also influenced by teammate crossing and proxies for expected career length, demand for current income, and expected benefits from union demands.

Monopolistic Competition with Endogenous Specialization

Review of Economic Studies 1994 61(1), 45-56
In the model of monopolistic competition on the circle, a product is identified by a single locational characteristic representing its brand or variety. The ability of a variety to compete with other varieties a given distance away (its specialization as quantified by transportation losses) is exogenously given in the standard model. Here, specialization is a choice variable selected by the firm. An equilibrium is derived, where the degree of specialization is endogenously determined. The effect of endogenizing specialization makes the Hotelling-Lancaster-Chamberlin model of monopolistic competition isomorphic to the Dixit-Stiglitz-Ethier formulation, without sacrificing the appealing concept of product 'distance.' Copyright 1994 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

The Determinants of Accounting Professors' Publishing Productivity—The Early Career*

Contemporary Accounting Research 1994 10(2), 387-407
Abstract. This study tests the ability of the accumulative advantage and human capital models to explain the vast differences among accounting faculty in publishing productivity and impact (citations) during their early careers. Using data from a survey of accounting faculty in U.S. universities and a variety of secondary sources, we estimate a measurement model for two theoretical constructs and a system of structural equations for each theoretical model using LISREL. Both theoretical models fit the data well. None of the hypotheses that are unique to human capital theory, but a majority of the unique accumulative advantage hypotheses are supported by the empirical results. The results suggest the following: (1) graduate program quality influences productivity indirectly and is positively associated with access to appointments in top academic departments, (2) the quality of the first faculty appointment is positively related to the number of publications in both academic and practitioner journals, and citations by others, (3) ability is positively related to access to top doctoral programs but is not directly related to the number of academic or practitioner journal publications, or their impact, (4) the receipt of external research funding in graduate school is positively related to the number of subsequent publications in academic journals, and (5) the receipt of a faculty research fellowship or grant is positively related to the number of publications in practitioner journals. Résumé. Les auteurs évaluent dans quelle mesure les modèles de l'avantage cumulatif et du capital humain parviennent à expliquer, tant en matière de publications que d'influence de ces publications (c'est‐à‐dire la mesure dans laquelle elles sont citées), les très grands écarts qui caractérisent la productivité des professeurs de comptabilité qui commencent leur carrière. À l'aide des données provenant d'un sondage mené auprès de professeurs de comptabilité d'universités des États‐Unis, et d'information tirée de diverses sources secondaires, les auteurs élaborent un modèle de mesure pour deux appareils conceptuels théoriques et un système d'équations structurelles pour chaque modèle théorique faisant appel au LISREL. Les deux modèles théoriques s'ajustent bien aux données. Les résultats empiriques ne confirment aucune des hypothèses propres à la théorie du capital humain, mais attestent la majorité des hypothèses propres à celle de l'avantage cumulatif. Ils semblent indiquer ce qui suit: (1) la qualité des programmes d'études supérieures influe indirectement sur la productivité en matière de publications et est en relation positive avec l'accès à des postes dans des départements universitaires de niveau supérieur; (2) la qualité du premier poste de professeur est en relation positive avec le nombre des publications dans les revues tant universitaires que professionnelles et avec l'influence de ces publications; (3) la capacité est en relation positive avec l'accès aux programmes de doctorat de haut niveau, mais elle ne l'est pas avec le nombre de publications dans des revues universitaires ou professionnelles ou avec leur influence; (4) l'obtention de financement auprès de sources externes pour la recherche dans les écoles supérieures est en relation positive avec le nombre de publications subséquentes dans des revues universitaires; et (5) l'obtention d'une subvention ou d'une bourse de recherche par les professeurs est en relation positive avec le nombre de leurs publications dans des revues professionnelles.

Debt covenant violation and manipulation of accruals

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1994 17(1-2), 145-176
This paper examines the abnormal accruals of a sample of 94 firms that reported debt covenant violations in annual reports. We expect debt covenant restrictions to influence accounting choices in the year preceding and the year of violation. Time-series and cross-sectional models are used to estimate ‘normal’ accruals. In the year prior to violation, both models indicate that ‘abnormal’ total and working capital accruals are significantly positive. In the year of violation, there is evidence of positive abnormal working capital accruals after controlling for management changes and auditor going concern qualifications.

Efficient and Inefficient Sales of Corporate Control

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1994 109(4), 957-993
This paper develops a framework for analyzing transactions that transfer a company's controlling block from an existing controller to a new controller. This framework is used to compare the market rule, which is followed in the United States, with the equal opportunity rule, which is used in many other countries. The market rule is superior to the equal opportunity rule in facilitating efficient transfers of control but inferior to it in discouraging inefficient transfers. Conditions under which one of the two rules is overall superior are identified; for example, the market rule is superior if existing and new controllers draw their characteristics from the same distributions. Finally, the rules' effects on surplus division are analyzed, and this examination reveals a rationale for mandatory rules.

The Individual Investor and the Weekend Effect

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1994 29(2), 263
It is well known that stock returns, on average, are negative on Mondays. Yet, it is less well known that this finding is substantially the consequence of returns in prior trading sessions. When Friday's return is negative, Monday's return is negative nearly 80 percent of the time with a mean return of −0.61 percent. When Friday's return is positive, the subsequent Monday's mean return is positive, 0.11 percent. This relationship is stronger than for any other pair of trading days and is most acute in small- and medium-size companies. The trading behavior of individual investors appears to be at least one factor contributing to this pattern. Individual investors are more active sellers of stock on Mondays, particularly following bad news in the market.