Résumé. Soixante‐deux vérificateurs/praticiens ont pris part à une expérience d'estimation du solde d'un compte. Ayant reçu au préalable un matériel d'apprentissage à la fois écrit et oral, ils ont utilisé quatre techniques de déduction (FDC, FDP, EPE, et EFH) afin de quantifier leurs croyances subjectives ayant trait au solde de comptes clients d'un cas de vérification. Leurs réponses furent par la suite comparées aux résultats d'une étude de simulation portant sur six cents (600) échantillons, au moyen de la règle de pointage quadratique, de même qu'à la distribution résultant d'un consensus parmi tous les sujets en utilisant la mesure de Kolmogorov‐Smirnov. Les résultats montrent que la technique de déduction FDP produit la distribution de probabilités préalables la plus précise pour utilisation dans le contexte de l'analyse Bayesienne. Les trois autres techniques de déduction se sont révélées égales entre elles, dans la mesure où leur précision était inférieure à celle de la technique de déduction FDP.

Abstract. Sixty‐two practising auditors participated in an account balance estimation experiment. Having been provided with written and oral training material, they used four elicitation techniques (CDF, PDF, EPS, and HFS) to quantify their subjective beliefs regarding the accounts receivable balance of an audit case study. Their responses were compared to the results of a 600 sample simulation study, using the quadratic scoring rule. Their responses were also compared to the consensus distribution of all subjects using the Kolmogorov‐Smirnov measure. The results indicated that PDF is the elicitation technique generating the most accurate prior probability distribution for use in Bayesian analysis. The other three elicitation techniques were about equal in the degree to which they were less accurate than the PDF technique.

Most large companies develop formal or informal agreements with banks to cover anticipated seasonal or temporary cash needs and/or to provide assurance of the availability of funds against unanticipated cash requirements. We address the problem of determining the optimal limits of available funds a company should maintain under a revolving credit agreement. Typically a company will negotiate a legal commitment with a bank or group of banks for a specified period of time, usually one to three years, in which the bank agrees to extend credit up to a specified maximum amount. During the duration of the commitment, the bank must lend money to the company whenever the company wishes to borrow, provided the amount of money borrowed does not exceed the maximum amount noted in the agreement. The company must not be in default of any of the restrictive covenants of the agreement, such as working capital limits, compensating balances, limits on other indebtedness, etc. Although the agreement itself provides for intermediate-term financing, the agreement often takes the form of short-term (30-60-90 days) renewable notes.