A competitive, dynamic model of entry into a new industry is set up and both its positive and normative aspects are studied. The main assumptions are that entry is sequential, that it occurs under imperfect information on the size of the market and that better information becomes available as time goes on. The gradual improvement in information is due to the fact that later waves of entrants are able to observe the profitability of earlier entrants. The major results reported here (under suitable restrictions) are that the equilibrium rate of entry is monotonically decreasing over time, and that—at any given point in time—it is smaller than the socially optimal one.

We investigate the ability of the price system to aggregate private information in a market of uncertain size and where set-up costs are incurred by entrants. It is shown that the equilibrium is random even when the totality of private information is so large that aggregate uncertainty is virtually non-existent. In particular, the limiting equilibrium does not approach the full-information, Walrasian outcome. Hence, the model identifies a technological factor (increasing returns) which gives rise to informational losses.

Equilibrium price distributions (for a homogeneous product) consistent with individual incentives are investigated. They arise in informationally imperfect markets in which the only primitive datum is the distribution of search costs. It is shown that single, multi- and continuous price distributions are all viable long-run phenomena depending on the nature of search costs. A method for computing equilibrium price distributions is also provided.

This paper investigates the interaction between bidding for procurementprograms and fractional buys. This problem is analyzed from the standpoint of a cost-minimizing procuring agent. It is shown that underimperfect competition, a multiple-source purchase is generally preferred to a single-source contract. Similarly, the author demonstrates that a (strictly) intermediate cost sharing arrangement, i.e., an incentive contract, dominates either the cost-plus or the firm-fixed price arrangements. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.

In this paper we model the dynamic portfolio choice problem facing banks, calibrate the model using empirical data from the banking industry for 1984–1993, and assess quantitatively the impact of recent regulatory developments related to bank capital. The model implies a U-shaped relationship between capital and risk-taking: As a bank's capital increases it first takes less risk, then more risk. A deposit insurance premium surcharge on undercapitalized banks induces them to take more risk. An increased capital requirement, whether flat or risk-based, tends to induce more risk-taking by ex-ante well-capitalized banks that comply with the new standard. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G20, G28.

This paper analyzes a decentralized process for the diffusion of knowledge. In equilibrium, the economy converges from an initial distribution of knowledge over agents to the steady-state distribution, which is unique. Because of the public good aspect of information, too little learning takes place, and ideas are implemented too early. The key difference between earlier formulations of search externalities by Diamond, Mortensen, and Spence on the one hand, and our own on the other, is that here spillovers of knowledge depend not only on how hard people are trying, but also on the differences in what they know: if all of us know the same thing, we cannot learn from each other. The model also addresses the following two substantive questions: first, the relationship between inequality and growth, noted some time ago by Kuznets, and second, the effect on growth of improvements in the communication technology.

This paper explores a model of innovation and spatial competition over time. A key implication of the paper is that firms' size is positively autocorrelated across time. The mechanism that generates this persistence works only in heterogenous-product markets and is based on the idea that larger firms possess better information about the design of future products. Some corroborating evidence is cited.

This paper endogenizes the frequency of major discoveries and the extent of their refinement.Four axioms deliver a one-parameter family of beliefs that guide exploratory effort.Such effort trades off the prospect of major new discovery against the chance of successfully refining discoveries made in the past.The only other parameter is the cost of making new discoveries relative to the cost of refining old ones.The paper derives time-series properties of inventive activity as they relate to the two parameters, and it discusses several specific inventions and their subsequent refinement.In doing so, the paper arguably enhances our understanding of the process of discovery.1 We thank the C. V. Starr Center for Applied Economics for technical and financial assistance.The second