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Wages, Prices, and Imports in the American Steel Industry

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1970 52(1), 34
T HIS paper presents an econometric analysis of the behavior of wages and prices in the American steel industry and the experience with steel imports during the 1950's and 1960's. The results presented are a portion of a larger, and as yet unfinished, effort to explain profit in the steel industry by estimating an equation for each economically meaningful component of the industry's income statement and then combining the equations to form a complete system. Modern empirical investigation of the determinants of wages, prices, and imports has developed in two distinct contexts. First, in response to widespread public concern over rising wages and prices during the 1950's, economists derived and tested a series of new formal models (generally embodied in a single central regression equation) to describe the processes at work. As time has passed more models have been proposed, early formulations have been elaborated and extended, and more data have become available for testing. In general, however, these models have stayed at the economywide level, and little has been done to disaggregate them by industry classification. Second, the wage-price subsections of large macro-econometric models have attempted to provide a complete explanation of the inflationary process, but as with the single equation studies, there has been little analysis of the mechanism in any individual sector. This paper draws upon the theories and models which have been developed for economy-wide studies, modifies them where necessary, and applies them to the steel industry. The next three sections present the formulation and estimation of equations for the steel wage rate, the wholesale price index for steel, and the ratio of imports to domestic shipments. Then, with the aid of the estimated relationships, some short-run projections are made; finally, the analysis is summarized.