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Government debt and stock price crash risk: International Evidence

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 72, 101245 open access
We add to the literature on the economic outcomes of government debt and argue that government debt increases crash risk via two channels: (i) hoarding bad news and (ii) tax avoidance. Based on a large international sample, our results indicate that stock crash risk is positively associated with government debt. Our conclusions are robust when we treat endogeneity issues, and our tests confirm the validity of bad news hoarding and tax avoidance as channels through which government debt influences stock price crash risk.

Ownership structure, corporate governance and analyst following: A study of French listed firms

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(6), 961-976
This study investigates the effects of some characteristics of the French corporate governance model – deemed to foster entrenchment and facilitate private benefits extraction – on the extent of analyst following. The results show that analysts are more likely to follow firms both with high discrepancy level between ownership and control and those controlled through pyramiding. These findings provide empirical support to the argument that minority shareholders value private information on firms with high expropriation likelihood, asking thence for more analyst services. Additional findings show that analysts are reticent to follow firms managed by controlling family members. This is, in part, explained by these firms’ reliance on private communication channels rather than public disclosure, producing a poor informational environment.

Board reforms and debt choice

Journal of Corporate Finance 2021 69, 102009
In this study, we examine the impact of board reforms on the choice between bank and public debt. Using a large sample of firm-year observations from 29 countries and a difference-in-difference setting, we find that major board reforms lead to a decrease in bank debt ratio, particularly in companies where bank debt is used for monitoring purposes, suggesting that bank debt and board reforms are substitutes for monitoring managers' actions. We also find that board reforms' adoption is associated with a facilitated access to alternative financing sources with better terms than bank debt. In an additional analysis, we show that the decrease in bank debt ratio is stronger for firms with higher information opacity and those in countries with strong institutional environment. More importantly, we provide evidence that the decrease in bank debt post-reform increases firm value, indicating that the substitution between bank monitoring and board monitoring is a value-enhancing decision. Taken collectively, we conclude that the need for bank monitoring is endogenously determined by the strength of alternative governance mechanisms (i.e. board governance).

Ownership structure, control contestability, and corporate debt maturity

Journal of Corporate Finance 2015 35, 265-285
The corporate governance literature has shown that self-interested controlling owners tend to divert corporate resources for private benefits at the expense of other shareholders. Such behavior leads the controlling owners to prefer long maturity debt to short maturity debt, to avoid frequent monitoring by lenders, which creates conflict between controlling and minority shareholders over the maturity structure of debt. In this paper, we examine whether the presence of multiple large shareholders (MLS), beyond the controlling owner, helps to mitigate this conflict. Using a large data set of French publicly traded firms during the period 1998–2013, we find strong evidence that firms with MLS exhibit shorter debt maturity. This result suggests that MLS curb the extraction of private benefits by the controlling owner and reduce her preference for less monitoring through the use of longer maturity debt. The findings are robust to a number of checks, including addressing endogeneity concerns and using alternative sample compositions and alternative regression frameworks.

The sources of shareholder wealth gains from going private transactions: The role of controlling shareholders

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 43, 226-246
The present study investigates the sources of shareholder wealth gains – as measured by cumulative abnormal returns and premiums – from going private transactions (GPTs). Using data for 314 GPTs from 18 Western European countries, we find that the announcements of GPTs generate a cumulative average abnormal return of about 22% and that pre-transaction shareholders on average receive a raw premium of about 36%. We further find that these shareholder wealth gains increase with the degree of separation of cash-flow and control rights of the pre-transaction ultimate owner and decrease with its ownership interests and with the presence of a second large shareholder. Taken together, these findings support the view that GPTs are expected to mitigate the inefficiencies induced by pre-transaction agency problems between controlling and minority shareholders. Thus, shareholder wealth gains from GPTs reflect the potential additional value that will be created under private ownership.

Product market competition and debt choice

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 49, 204-224
Motivated by prior research on the informational and monitoring role of product market competition, we examine how competitive pressure affects firms' choice between bank debt and public debt. Using a sample of 3675 U.S. firms over the period 2001–2013, we find that competitive pressure from the product market leads firms to rely less on bank debt financing. In a natural experiment setting, we also find that there is a significant decrease in firm reliance on bank debt after large import tariff reductions. In additional analyses, we show that the effect of competitive pressure on debt choice is more pronounced for firms with greater exposure to competition, higher financial constraints, and weaker governance practices. Moreover, we find that product market competition is associated with long-term maturity debt. Taken together, our study generates the important insight that external governance pressure from the product market acts as an alternate governance mechanism for bank debt monitoring.

Sovereign wealth funds and equity pricing: Evidence from implied cost of equity of publicly traded targets

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 53, 202-224
We investigate the impact of sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investment on ex ante (implied) cost of equity capital of targeted firms. Using an international sample of 310 targets involved in 403 SWF deals and their matched firms, we find that targeted firms exhibit, on average, higher cost of equity financing than their peers after the announcement date. Firms involved in domestic deals and deals concluded during the Global Financial Crisis exhibit lower implied cost of equity financing, while those involved in cross-border deals are associated with higher implied cost of equity capital.

Large controlling shareholders and stock price synchronicity

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 40, 80-96
This paper examines the effect of controlling shareholders on stock price synchronicity by focusing on two salient corporate governance features in a concentrated ownership setting, namely, ultimate cash flow rights and the separation of voting and cash flow rights (i.e., excess control). Using a unique dataset of 654 French listed firms spanning 1998–2007, this study provides evidence that stock price synchronicity increases with excess control, supporting the argument that controlling shareholders tend to disclose less firm-specific information to conceal opportunistic practices. Additionally, this study shows that firms with substantial excess control are more likely to experience stock price crashes, consistent with the conjecture that controlling shareholders are more likely to hoard bad information when their control rights exceed their cash flow rights. Another important finding is that firms’ stock prices are less synchronous and less likely to crash when controlling shareholders own a large fraction of cash flow rights. This is consistent with the argument that controlling shareholders have less incentive to adopt poor disclosure policies and to accumulate bad news, since high cash flow ownership aligns their interests with those of minority investors.

Annual report readability and the cost of equity capital

Journal of Corporate Finance 2021 67, 101902
Using a large panel of U.S. public firms, we examine the relation between annual report readability and cost of equity capital. We hypothesize that complex textual reporting deters investors' ability to process and interpret annual reports, leading to higher information risk, and thus higher cost of equity financing. Consistent with our prediction, we find that greater textual complexity is associated with higher cost of equity capital. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks, including use of multiple estimation methods, alternative proxies of annual report readability and cost of equity capital measures, and potential endogeneity concerns. In addition, we hypothesize and test whether the nature of the relation between readability and cost of capital depends on the tone of 10-K filings. Our results show that the effect of annual report complexity on cost of equity is greater when disclosure tone is more negative or more ambiguous. We also find that the effect of annual report readability on cost of equity capital depends on the degree of stock market competition, level of institutional investors' ownership, and analyst coverage.

Reprint of: Assessing the effects of unconventional monetary policy and low interest rates on pension fund risk incentives

Journal of Banking & Finance 2018 92, 340-357 open access
This study quantifies the effects of persistently low interest rates near to the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy on pension fund risk incentives in the United States. Using two structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models and a counterfactual scenario analysis, the results show that monetary policy shocks, as identified by changes in Treasury yields following changes in the central bank's target interest rates, lead to a substantial increase in pension funds’ allocation to equity assets. Notably, the shift from bonds to equity securities is greater during the period where the US Federal Reserve launched unconventional monetary policy measures. Additional findings show a positive correlation between pension fund risk-taking, low interest rates and the decline in Treasury yields across both well-funded and underfunded public pension plans, which is thus consistent with a structural risk-shifting incentive.