This paper analyzes the pricing behavior of electricity generating firms in the restructured California market from its inception in April 1998 until its collapse in late 2000. Using detailed firm-level data, I find that conduct is fairly consistent with a Cournot pricing game for much of the sample. In summer and fall 2000, the market was slightly less competitive, yet the dramatic rise in prices was more driven by changes in costs and demand than by changes in firm conduct. The five large nonutility generators raised prices slightly above unilateral market-power levels in 2000, but fell far short of colluding on the joint monopoly price.

A long line of research investigates whether the retail prices of electricity and natural gas send proper signals about scarcity in order to induce efficient consumption. Historically, regulated utilities have not designed tariffs that set marginal prices equal to marginal costs. Currently, some jurisdictions are opening the retail sectors to competition via “retail choice.” These new regimes replace imperfect regulation with imperfect competition as the process by which retail tariffs are formed. We discuss the challenges in evaluating the efficiency of tariffs and present evidence of how pricing has changed in markets with retail choice.

Oligopoly models of price competition predict that strategic firms exercise market power and generate inefficiencies. However, heterogeneity in firms’ strategic ability also generates inefficiencies. We study the Texas electricity market where firms exhibit significant heterogeneity in how they deviate from Nash equilibrium bidding. These deviations, in turn, increase the cost of production. To explain this heterogeneity, we embed a cognitive hierarchy model into a structural model of bidding and estimate firms’ strategic sophistication. We find that firm size and manager education affect sophistication. Using the model, we show that mergers which increase sophistication can increase efficiency despite increasing market concentration. (JEL D24, D43, G34, L13, L25, L94)