Earnings management, Jones model, Import relief, Discretionary accruals

[A general approach to testing serial dependence restrictions implied from financial models is developed. In particular, we discuss joint serial dependence restrictions imposed by random walk, market microstructure, and rational expectations models recently examined in the literature. This approach incorporates more information from the data by explicitly modeling dependencies induced by the use of overlapping observations. Because the estimation problem is sufficiently simple in this framework, the test statistics have simple representations in terms of only a few unknown parameters. As a result, relatively good size properties are attained in small samples. In addition, the benefit to overlapping observations and the advantage of examining multiperiod time series are explicitly quantified.]

International differences in the cost of production of a key intermediate product can mean that a domestic firm is dependent on supplies from a foreign vertically integrated firm. This paper considers the incentives for the foreign firm and foreign country to supply the domestic firm when the firms compete in a Cournot or Bertrand market for the final product. The vertical supply decision is significantly affected by domestic supply conditions for the input and a domestic tariff on final product imports. Optimal policy by the exporting country may require a tax on both exports, or a subsidy on both exports.

Friedman's (1960) proposal to pay interest on (required) reserves is considered in a setting that eliminates the indeterminacy of steady-state equilibrium discussed by Sargent and Wallace (1985). In an overlapping-generations model where the real rate of interest is technologically determined, the payment of interest on reserves results in a determinate, Pareto optimal steady-state equilibrium. However, interest payments on reserves reduce the steady-state welfare of all young agents and, for many economies, result in the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria. This is the case even if such equilibria cannot exist when reserves do not earn interest.

Rational Choice--the published record of a conference on economics and psychology--frames the issues as a contest between economic theory and the falsifying evidence from psychology. According to a third perspective, that of experimental economics, most standard theory provides a correct first approximation in predicting motivated behavior in laboratory experimental markets, but the theory is incomplete, particularly in articulating convergence processes in time and in ignoring decision cost. This view has roots in the work of Herbert Simon and Sidney Siegel, but it is not plainly represented in contemporary research in economic pyschology.

The authors examine the returns of stocks in the Cowles Industrial Index before and after the introduction of personal income taxes in 1917. This is distinct from earlier studies because they cross-sectionally analyze the relationship between the returns of the individual stocks and measures of tax-loss selling potential and size. The authors find that excess returns at the turn-of-the-year and for the month of January were not significant until after 1917. These results provide strong support for the tax-loss selling hypothesis as an explanation for the January seasonal in the returns of small firms.

Wayne B. Gray, Carol Adaire Jones, Are Osha Health Inspections Effective? A Longitudinal Study in the Manufacturing Sector, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 73, No. 3 (Aug., 1991), pp. 504-508