To have one central bank governor address you today may be regarded as a misfortune, but to invite two looks like carelessness! It is a great honour to be invited by this year’s President-Elect, Marty Feldstein, to deliver the Ely lecture. Marty has been my teacher, mentor, colleague and friend for over thirty years, and I never cease to be amazed by the energy and imagination which he devotes to the study of economic problems. I got to know Marty during my time as a Kennedy Scholar at Harvard in 1971. The Kennedy Scholarships form one part of Britain's national memorial to President Kennedy. The other part is an acre of land, now American territory, at Runnymede. At the ceremony to open the Runnymede memorial in 1965, Prime Minister Harold Wilson remarked about President Kennedy that "his eyes were on the horizon, but his feet were on the ground”. Almost thirty years earlier Richard T. Ely published his autobiography entitled "Ground under Our Feet". Whereas I found the experience of coming from Europe to the United States intellectually liberating and exhilarating, a hundred years earlier Ely found academic freedom by making the reverse journey. As

This paper studies four classic fiscal-policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model. The authors' main findings are as follows: (1) permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short-run and long-run output multipliers that exceed one; (2) permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes; (3) the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases; and (4) public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment. These findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy.

Martin Feldstein:1 Chairman Alan Greenspan's remarks today give us an opportunity to understand his thinking about monetary policy and about the Federal Reserve's actions during the past 15 years. It was a period of substantial accomplishment that no doubt reflects in considerable measure the views of the Chairman himself. The Fed's primary goal, price stability, has been achieved, with inflation down from 4 percent at the end of the 1980's to about 1.5 percent now. The 2-percentage-point difference between the interest rate on conventional Treasury bonds and on inflation-indexed bonds (TIPS) shows that financial markets expect inflation will remain at about 2 percent for at least the next decade.

Returning to a topic first systematically treated by Poole (1970) in a textbook Keynesian model, this paper compares interest rate and money supply rules. Our analysis, by contrast, is conducted within a rational expectations macro model that incorporates flexible prices and informational frictions. With differential information, interest rate targets can affect the information content of market prices and real activity, but these real consequences can always be replicated by an appropriately chosen money stock rule with feedback to economic activity. However, when the policy authority has incomplete information about the state of the economic system, it faces a discrete choice between an interest rate peg and strict money stock control. Depending on the parameters of the model, either of these policies may be optimal, given the informational constraints faced by the monetary authority.

This paper presents estimates of static and dynamic general equilibrium resource allocation effects for four alternative plans for corporate and personal income tax integration in the United States. A medium-scale numerical general equilibrium model is used which integrates the U.S. tax system with consumer demand behavior by household and producer behavior by industry. Results indicate that total integration of personal and corporate taxes would yield an annual static efficiency gain of around $6 billion (1973 dollars). Partial integration plans yield less. Dynamic effects are larger, and our analysis indicates that full integration may yield gains whose present value is as large as $500 billion or about 1.0 percent of the discounted present value of the GNP stream to the U.S. economy after correction for population growth. Plans differ in their distributional impacts, although these findings depend on the nature of replacement taxes used to preserve government revenues. The size of dynamic resource allocation effects is sensitive to the choice of the replacement tax, while static gains are reasonably robust.

Colombia used lotteries to distribute vouchers which partially covered the cost of private secondary school for students who maintained satisfactory academic progress. Three years after the lotteries, winners were about 10 percentage points more likely to have finished 8th grade, primarily because they were less likely to repeat grades, and scored 0.2 standard deviations higher on achievement tests. There is some evidence that winners worked less than losers and were less likely to marry or cohabit as teenagers. Benefits to participants likely exceeded the $24 per winner additional cost to the government of supplying vouchers instead of public-school places.

This paper describes a series of laboratory experiments studying whether the form in which items are displayed at the time of decision affects the dollar value that subjects place on them. Using a Becker-DeGroot auction under three different conditions—(i) text displays, (ii) image displays, and (iii) displays of the actual items—we find that subjects' willingness-to-pay is 40–61 percent larger in the real than in the image and text displays. Furthermore, follow-up experiments suggest the presence of the real item triggers preprogrammed consummatory Pavlovian processes that promote behaviors that lead to contact with appetitive items whenever they are available.