Knowledge that Transforms

A MACROECONOMIC AND TRANSPORT MODEL HAS BEEN DEVELOPED TO EXPLORE THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE ECONOMY OF AN UNDERDEVELOPED NATION AND ITS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM. THE MACROECONOMIC PORTION OF THE MODEL PRODUCES ANNUAL PROJECTIONS OF REGIONAL DEMANDS, PRODUCTION LEVELS, AND INCOMES. THE TRANSPORT SECTOR DETERMINES MARKET AREAS, DISTRIBUTION AND ROUTING OF THESE COMMODITY FLOWS, AND ASSIGNS THEM TO THE LINKS OF A NETWORK REPRESENTING THE INDIVIDUAL TRANSPORT FACILITIES EXISTING OR PROPOSED FOR THE COUNTRY OR REGION UNDER STUDY. THE COUNTRY OF COLOMBIA, SOUTH AMERICA WAS CHOSEN FOR EXPERIMENTATION WITH THE MODEL. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE MODEL IS USEFUL FROM BOTH A PRACTICAL AND A PEDAGOGICAL STANDPOINT. IN THE DISCUSSION, IT IS NOTED THAT THE CRUX OF THE MATTER MAY WELL BE IN THE DYNAMIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR AND THE REST OF THE ECONOMY. A PRINCIPAL FEATURE OF THIS MODEL IS JUST THIS DYNAMIC INTERACTION. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THE ABOVE MODEL CANNOT HELP WITH SOME IMPORTANT CLASSES OF TRANSPORT QUESTIONS, BUT THAT THERE ARE A LARGE NUMBER OF TRANSPORT PROBLEMS IN LESS DEVELOPED ECONOMIES FOR WHICH IT IS WELL SUITED. /BPR/

The poor receive a sub-optimal amount of material goods through the natural economic processes of our society. Poor and non-poor alike seek to institute mechanisms that give something to the poor beyond what they get from the normal workings of the 'competitive' system. The fact that the non-poor share in this desire indicates that an externality is generated when the economic welfare of the poor is improved. On a collective basis, the non-poor are willing to pay for this externality. They sacrifice some of their income in support of redistributive programs that benefit the poor. In this paper we will not be concerned with moral or ethical values. We develop our analysis with the aid of a simple two-party model. One party is the representative poor man, the other the representative citizen. The representative citizen asks himself the central question of this essay. How should assistance programs to the poor be structured so as to maximize the utility function of the representative citizen. (Author)

Экономическая наука не создала теории максимизирующего бюрократа. В настоящее время доминирующий подход к государственному управлению состоит в том, чтобы снабдить бюрократов, желающих по какой-либо причине работать эффективно, организационной структурой, информационной системой и анализом. Однако данный подход не развивает и явно не рассматривает как относящиеся к делу условия, при которых личные цели бюрократа согласуются с эффективностью бюрократии. В настоящее время, когда большая и все возрастающая часть экономической деятельности осуществляется в бюро, экономисты не сделали никакого значительного вклада в теорию, позволяющего дать ответы на следующие вопросы. Каковы отличительные характеристики бюрократии? Каковы основные составляющие теории бюрократии? Что конкретно максимизируют бюрократы и при каких внешних условиях? Каковы следствия максимизирующего поведения в данных условиях? Например, каков равновесный выпуск и бюджет отдельно взятого бюро для данных условий спроса и затрат? Каково влияние изменений в условиях спроса и затрат? Как сказывается бюрократическая организация экономической деятельности на благосостояние? Какие изменения в организации и структуре вознаграждения смогли бы повысить эффективность бюрократии? В данной статье представлена простая модель максимизирующего бюрократа и на основании этой модели сделана попытка дать ряд пробных ответов качественного характера на эти вопросы.

THIS IS A STUDY OF THE CONSUMPTION OF AUTOMOBILES IN THE UNITED STATES DURING THE PERIOD 1955-57. DEPRECIATION IS USED AS THE PRIMARY MEASURE OF CONSUMPTION IN ORDER TO DETERMINE HOW WELL DEMAND MEASURED IN THIS WAY CAN BE EXPLAINED BY INCOME AND OTHER SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES. THIS STUDY DIFFERS FROM EARLIER WORK IN THREE RESPECTS: THE LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLE MODEL DEVELOPED BY TOBIN IS USED IN ORDER TO HANDLE CORRECTLY THE PROBLEM OF ZERO EXPENDITURE HOUSEHOLDS. THE DATA USED ARE DRAWN FROM THE SURVEYS OF CONSUMER FINANCES FOR THE YEARS 1955, 1956, AND 1957. THE ESTIMATES FOR EACH OF THE YEARS ARE COMPARED AND APPEAR TO BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT. A REPAIR COST BASED ON THE AGE OF EACH CAR IS INCLUDED IN THE TOTAL COST INCURRED BY THE HOUSEHOLD. THE CONCLUSIONS ARE THAT: (1) HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION RISES WITH INCOME, BUT RISES LESS SHARPLY AT HIGHER THAN AT LOWER INCOMES, (2) EXPENDITURE DECREASES AS THE HEAD OF THE HOUSEHOLD APPROACHES RETIREMENT AGE, (3) EXPENDITURE INCREASES AS THE NUMBER OF ADULTS IN THE SPENDING UNIT INCREASES, (4) EXPENDITURE DECREASES AS THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN INCREASES, (5) AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR OTHER FACTORS, SPENDING UNITS LIVING IN NEW YORK AND CHICAGO SHOW LOWER THAN AVERAGE, AND THOSE LIVING IN RURAL AREAS SHOW HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONSUMPTION, (6) NONWHITE SPENDING UNITS CONSUME CARS AT A LOWER LEVEL THAN WHITE. /AUTHOR/

EXTENSIVE GEOGRAPHIC GROWTH OF METROPOLITAN REGIONS, EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION DECLINE IN CENTRAL AREAS, AND LOW DENSITY DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY RESIDENTIAL, ARE PERHAPS THE MOST NOTABLE DIMENSIONS OF THE TRANSFORMATION EXPERIENCED IN U. S. METROPOLITAN AREAS SINCE WORLD WAR II. NEW AND CONSISTENT INFORMATION IS PRESENTED ABOUT THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL DENSITY AND AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP. REGARDLESS WHICH CASUAL HYPOTHESIS IS ACCEPTED, IT APPEARS THAT INCOME HAS BEEN THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR UNDERLYING BOTH HIGHER POSTWAR LEVELS OF AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP AND DECLINES IN RESIDENTIAL DENSITY. THIS CONCLUSION DERIVES BOTH FROM CONSIDERATION OF THE ESTIMATED REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS AND OF THE POSTWAR CHANGES IN INCOME AND OTHER EXPLANATORY VARIABLES. REAL MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME IN THE BOSTON AREA INCREASED BY AN ESTIMATED 56% BETWEEN 1950 AND 1960. THE INCOME ELASTICITIES OBTAINED FOR THE LEAST SQUARES AUTO OWNERSHIP EQUATIONS INDICATE THAT AN INCREASE OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN REAL MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME WOULD INCREASE AUTO OWNERSHIP PER HOUSEHOLD BY BETWEEN 28 AND 34%. WHILE RESIDENTIAL DENSITY IS EXOGENOUS IN THE LEAST SQUARES FORMULATION IT IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DEPENDENT UPON INCOME. THE MULTICOLLINEARITY BETWEEN AUTO OWNERSHIP AND INCOME IN THE TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARES /TSLS/ ESTIMATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET THE SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION RESULTS. EVEN SO, THE PARAMETER ESTIMATES OBTAINED FOR THE TSLS EQUATIONS SUGGEST THE SINGLE EQUATION MODELS PROVIDE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE EFFECT OF INCREASES IN INCOME ON AUTO OWNERSHIP. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT RAPID POSTWAR INCREASES IN FAMILY INCOME HAVE STRONGLY AFFECTED RESIDENTIAL DENSITY, EITHER DIRECTLY AS A ITEM OF CONSUMPTION OR INDIRECTLY THROUGH THEIR EFFECTS ON AUTOMOBILE OWNERSHIP. FAMILY SIZE AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION APPEAR TO BE THE MOST IMPORTANT DETERMINANTS OF RESIDENTIAL DENSITY.